DRAM is now around 57.3u; it surged nearly 6 percentage points in a day. It has reclaimed above the 15-minute moving average again, and the gloomy move from yesterday around 54.6 seems to have been washed out.
First, my read: the direction has turned bullish, but at this level I won’t chase—I'll wait for a pullback.
The most tangible change is on the futures/contract side. The issue I kept mentioning before—"it’s up, but there’s no follow-through from leveraged capital"—has been fixed this time. Contract open interest has increased by more than 16% in a day. The funding/fee rate is still positive, but it isn’t hot. That suggests the new entries aren’t a frenzy, but are being accumulated gradually. This kind of leveraged structure is more stable than a single big green candle that just fakes the move.
However, the problem is also on the contract side. In the proactive/active market for 7 hours, turnover shrank by 60%. The buy-volume share is still less than half. When it climbed to the high near 57.8, the number of people actively chasing actually decreased. The big players on the other side are also retreating: within those 7 hours, the long/short account ratio dropped by 8%. On a position basis it’s shrinking in tandem—longs still hold the advantage, but the top has the flavor of profit-taking.
The order book looks stable: bid and ask are close to a 50/50 split. But there’s no clear large net inflow into the spot market, which indicates this move is mainly being pushed by contract/futures capital, and spot follow-through is only average.
So my stance: I’m bullish on direction. 57.8 is the immediate resistance in front of us. Chasing below that resistance doesn’t offer good value. I’ll wait for a pullback toward the short-term moving averages—ideally after seeing proactive buy volume come back. That would be the most comfortable entry.
#dram $DRAM
First, my read: the direction has turned bullish, but at this level I won’t chase—I'll wait for a pullback.
The most tangible change is on the futures/contract side. The issue I kept mentioning before—"it’s up, but there’s no follow-through from leveraged capital"—has been fixed this time. Contract open interest has increased by more than 16% in a day. The funding/fee rate is still positive, but it isn’t hot. That suggests the new entries aren’t a frenzy, but are being accumulated gradually. This kind of leveraged structure is more stable than a single big green candle that just fakes the move.
However, the problem is also on the contract side. In the proactive/active market for 7 hours, turnover shrank by 60%. The buy-volume share is still less than half. When it climbed to the high near 57.8, the number of people actively chasing actually decreased. The big players on the other side are also retreating: within those 7 hours, the long/short account ratio dropped by 8%. On a position basis it’s shrinking in tandem—longs still hold the advantage, but the top has the flavor of profit-taking.
The order book looks stable: bid and ask are close to a 50/50 split. But there’s no clear large net inflow into the spot market, which indicates this move is mainly being pushed by contract/futures capital, and spot follow-through is only average.
So my stance: I’m bullish on direction. 57.8 is the immediate resistance in front of us. Chasing below that resistance doesn’t offer good value. I’ll wait for a pullback toward the short-term moving averages—ideally after seeing proactive buy volume come back. That would be the most comfortable entry.
#dram $DRAM