This big bullish surge yesterday has already pulled BTC out of its weak range consolidation. The price rose in one go from 64,694 to 70,450. On the daily timeframe, it closed on increased volume at 69,310, directly breaking through the prior downward pressure zone of 65,000–66,700. This isn’t a normal rebound—it’s a daily-level trend strengthening. The 4-hour chart has also completed an upward BOS. For the current pullback, first look for an LPS confirmation after the breakout; don’t keep treating the market as a rebound that’s done just because it hit a resistance area.
After price surged to 69,868 today, it pulled back. On the 1-hour timeframe, it repeatedly left upper wicks around 69,800, suggesting that 70,000-ish has been taking profits. However, the buyers haven’t been pushed back fully. OI rose again from around 107,000 to above 109,000. With price pulling back while positions increased, that implies new selling (short) has entered at the high end—and it may also provide fuel for the next squeeze. There is still active buying, but it’s unable to keep pushing and breaking above 69,800 consecutively, so the short-term needs to digest first.
Bajie’s view: the broader trend remains generally bullish. The main players are more likely to first have a trading range and turnover between 69,200–69,800. On a pullback, look for 68,600–68,350; if weaker, around 68,000. As long as the 4-hour holds above 68,000–68,350, there will still be an opportunity to test 70,050–70,450 again. Only with a valid reclaim of 70,450 will the daily expansion space open up toward 71,000–72,000. If the 4-hour candle body breaks below 68,000, and the subsequent retest fails to close back above 68,350, then the post-breakout pullback is upgraded to a failure—next target would be 66,700–66,000.
After price surged to 69,868 today, it pulled back. On the 1-hour timeframe, it repeatedly left upper wicks around 69,800, suggesting that 70,000-ish has been taking profits. However, the buyers haven’t been pushed back fully. OI rose again from around 107,000 to above 109,000. With price pulling back while positions increased, that implies new selling (short) has entered at the high end—and it may also provide fuel for the next squeeze. There is still active buying, but it’s unable to keep pushing and breaking above 69,800 consecutively, so the short-term needs to digest first.
Bajie’s view: the broader trend remains generally bullish. The main players are more likely to first have a trading range and turnover between 69,200–69,800. On a pullback, look for 68,600–68,350; if weaker, around 68,000. As long as the 4-hour holds above 68,000–68,350, there will still be an opportunity to test 70,050–70,450 again. Only with a valid reclaim of 70,450 will the daily expansion space open up toward 71,000–72,000. If the 4-hour candle body breaks below 68,000, and the subsequent retest fails to close back above 68,350, then the post-breakout pullback is upgraded to a failure—next target would be 66,700–66,000.