First look at the price
BTC current price is around 69,000–69,400. In the past 24 hours, it surged straight from around 64,500, blowing everything out, reaching as high as above 70,000. According to Gate data, the highest reported BTC/USDT was $70,004.9. The 24-hour increase is 8.35%. This morning it has stabilized above 69,000 and is consolidating. ETH is even stronger, up 18.06% to $2,259. SOL is also rising in sync.
Probability assessment: I think the upside probability is higher. The White House meeting directly lit up the market—70,000 is the new battleground.
Today’s key variables: ① Digesting the outcome of the White House meeting—Trump said the U.S. has already discussed and accumulated a considerable number of bitcoins ② Whether 70,000 can hold ③ The Federal Reserve July meeting minutes (tonight at 2 a.m.)
Why do I think the probability of upside is higher? Three reasons:
First, the White House meeting blasted—Trump said the U.S. is going to buy Bitcoin.
On Aug 19, the White House crypto meeting—Trump threw three “bombs” directly:
The U.S. has discussed accumulating a “significant amount” of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
“The war on cryptocurrencies is completely over.” To become the “world’s crypto capital.”
Urges Congress to advance the (CLARITY Act)
This isn’t “considering”—it’s “already discussed.” A country-level Bitcoin strategic reserve narrative is forming. Trump also mentioned that crypto has “greatly reduced pressure on the dollar.” The market directly priced this as a “nation-level positive”—BTC surged from 64,500 to 70,000, and ETH is up 18%.
Second, ETFs have had net inflows for two consecutive days—institutions are chasing.
On Tuesday (Aug 19), spot Bitcoin ETF net inflow was $189.3 million, of which BlackRock’s IBIT contributed $143.57 million. The previous day (Aug 18) net inflow was $297.56 million. Total for the two days: $487 million. Cumulative net inflow for August so far is already close to $951 million.
BlackRock’s IBIT historical total net inflow has reached $61.4 billion. Institutions are chasing with real money.
Third, the technical breakout—66,600’s neckline has been smashed through.
BTC previously faced neckline resistance around $66,600 from an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. Last night it surged straight through; now it’s above $69,000. Analysts point out that if it strongly breaks above $66,600 and holds, the technical target could extend to $76,000. The upper edge of the rising channel points to the $80,000–$83,000 area.
Sector 1: Macro news
This week’s data calendar: Thursday—Fed July meeting minutes (2:00 a.m.); Friday—no scheduled data. Tonight’s minutes are the next variable.
1. Geopolitics: The U.S. and Iran are still at a stalemate, and oil prices have risen for four straight days
On Tuesday, Trump said the U.S. and Iran are currently not in talks and no new negotiations have been scheduled. He claimed the Strait of Hormuz is “open”—but Iran says it’s not open, and actual navigation volume is still low.
Brent crude oil closed at $91.62 per barrel, up for four consecutive trading sessions. The geopolitical stalemate hasn’t eased, so oil prices are running high.
2. Liquidity: ETF net inflows for two consecutive days totaling 487 million.
On Tuesday, spot Bitcoin ETF net inflow was $189.3 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT contributing $143.57 million. As of August, cumulative net inflow is nearly $951 million.
Binance contract activity: On August 19, Binance SNDK (SanDisk) U.S. stock perpetual futures traded volume was about $63.7 billion, exceeding the $59.6 billion of BTC/USDT perpetuals, making it the highest-volume contract product on Binance. Of Binance’s top 15 contracts, 10 are TradFi assets. Funds are flooding into U.S. stock perpetuals crazily, and AI chip stocks (SanDisk, SK Hynix) are the core underlying targets.
Where the funds are going: Within crypto—BTC dominance is falling, and ETH inflows are even stronger (+18% in 24 hours). Across assets—funds are rushing into AI chip perpetual contracts (SNDK: $63.7B vs BTC: $59.6B).
3. Traditional markets: U.S. stocks are mixed, and chip stocks are diverging
S&P 500 and Nasdaq are moving slightly. In the chip stocks sector, SanDisk perpetual futures trading volume has exploded, but spot performance is mixed—funds are fighting in the perpetual market and aren’t waiting for U.S. stock market hours.
Market trend/attention hotspots
① White House meeting: Trump said the U.S. has discussed accumulating a “significant amount” of Bitcoin
This is the core driver behind all today’s market moves. Trump said his administration has “completely ended the war on cryptocurrencies,” discussed whether the government can buy more Bitcoin, and mentioned an executive order prohibiting federal agencies from establishing a central bank digital currency. He also urged Congress to advance the (CLARITY Act). The U.S. has already pushed forward a Bitcoin strategic reserve and a digital asset reserve plan.
BTC mapping: Short term—most of the upside from a $6,000 move has already been priced in. Medium term—if the strategic reserve shifts from “discussion” to “legislation,” that would be a truly institutional bull market. Tonight and over the next few weeks, the market will watch Congress’s actions.
② Binance SNDK perpetual futures volume surpassed BTC—an historic moment
On August 19, Binance SanDisk (SNDK) perpetual futures daily trading volume was $63.7 billion, exceeding the $59.6 billion of BTC/USDT perpetuals. Of Binance’s top 15 contracts, 10 are TradFi assets. The largest trading product of crypto exchanges is no longer Bitcoin—it’s U.S. stock chip shares.
BTC mapping: Funds are rotating from the crypto track to TradFi perpetuals (AI chips). BTC is up, but trading volume is being surpassed by SanDisk—this isn’t BTC’s own bull market; it’s a rebound in overall risk appetite for the entire risk-asset complex.
Sector 2: Technicals
BTC: Market sentiment directly lit up from expectations before the meeting. On the 4-hour timeframe, the price broke through the 66,600 neckline resistance from 64,500 and headed straight for 70,000, with a peak touching 70,004.9. RSI entered the overbought zone. On the 1-hour timeframe, volume surged to very high levels—momentum for chasing is strong, but there’s pressure for profit-taking in the short term. On the 15-minute timeframe, price is consolidating and digesting in the 69,000–69,500 range. Above 70,000–70,500 is the first hurdle—this morning it touched 70,000 then pulled back, showing supply/pressure at the integer level. If 70,000 holds, it opens the door to 72,000–73,000. Below 68,000–68,500 is the first support (after breaking, it acts as a confirmation level on retest); 66,600 is strong support (the neckline breakthrough turns resistance into support). The overall structure has shifted to a long bias, and 66,600 has turned from resistance into support.
ETH: Up 18.06% in 24 hours to 2,259—performing far better than BTC. The ETH/BTC ratio has rebounded sharply. [Resistance is at 2,300–2,350 above; support is at 2,100–2,150 below.]
SOL: Following the big surge, performance is strong. [Resistance is at 180–185 above; support is at 160–165 below.]
Nasdaq 100: U.S. stocks are moving slightly, but Binance U.S. stock perpetuals (SNDK) have already surpassed BTC in trading volume.
S&P 500: Slight consolidation with unclear direction.
Gold: Spot gold is above $4,500 per ounce. A geopolitical stalemate + rate-cut expectations provide dual support.
Outlook for today
Core judgment: I think the probability of upside is higher. The White House meeting ignited the strategic reserve narrative, ETFs are chasing, and the technicals have broken through—but 70,000 won’t hold in one go.
Three scenarios:
Scenario one (the highest probability, about 45%): The market continues to digest the White House meeting’s bullish news, and BTC consolidates with strength between 68,500 and 70,500. 70,000 needs repeated tests and won’t hold in one go.
Scenario two (probability about 35%): The strategic reserve narrative keeps gaining momentum; institutions enter out of FOMO; BTC breaks out with volume and holds above 70,000, then reaches 72,000–73,000.
Scenario three (probability about 20%): If the Fed minutes are hawkish or if profit-taking pours out all at once, BTC could retrace to 68,000–68,500, even to 66,600.
Key variable: The Fed July meeting minutes at 2:00 a.m. tonight—if hawkish, it could cool down this rally; if neutral or dovish, 70,000 might be “welded” in place immediately.
Trading ideas (for entertainment only, not investment advice)
My view: biased to the upside, but don’t chase until 70,000 is cleared.
From 64,500 to 70,000 in one day—that’s 5,500 dollars. The 70,000 integer level has sell pressure. If you chase in and it retraces to 68,000, you could be trapped for 2,000 dollars.
Long idea (more on the right side, wait for a pullback): If BTC pulls back to 68,000–68,500 without breaking and stabilizes, take a light long position. Stop loss: 67,200. Targets: 70,000–71,000.
Long idea (more aggressive, chasing the breakout): If BTC breaks out with high volume and holds above 70,000, and the 15-minute timeframe confirms, lightly chase the long with a small position. Stop loss: 69,000. Targets: 71,500–72,500.
Short-selling idea (slightly on the left side, high risk): BTC bounces to 70,000–70,500 with clearly decreasing volume; it can’t get up. Lightly short with small position. Stop loss: 70,800. Targets: 69,000–68,500.
Risk warning: The White House meeting’s bullish news has already been priced in by $6,000. If tonight’s Fed minutes are hawkish, part of this rally may be given back. The 70,000 psychological level won’t be crossed easily. Keep position sizing under control.
In one sentence:
Trump said the U.S. will buy Bitcoin, and BTC shot straight from 64,500 to 70,000. ETF inflows over two days were $487 million, and the 66,600 neckline was broken—confirming the uptrend, but 70,000 won’t hold in one shot. Wait for a pullback—don’t chase.
Have respect for the market—tell the truth. Chat in the comments.