Last night, BTC rapidly surged from around 64,100, and during the day it once climbed to around 70,400.
Many people’s first reaction is: did the FOMC meeting minutes drive this?
But if you break down the sequence of events, the conclusion doesn’t support such a simple attribution.
Between 23:00 Beijing time and 0:00 the next hour last night, BTC saw its most intense one-hour rally. The price surged from around 65,900 toward 70,400; meanwhile, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes were released at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time.
That is to say, the main upward move actually already happened before the minutes were released.
Based on publicly available futures contract data, during the rally, open interest expanded in sync, indicating that this rally wasn’t just static price fluctuations—derivatives capital was also actively participating.
But this still doesn’t directly tell us whether the increase was driven by new longs taking control, or whether short covering and new participation happened at the same time.
Looking back at the meeting minutes themselves: the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, but internally it wasn’t relaxed about the subsequent policy path—several officials still believed that if inflation doesn’t keep easing, tighter policy may be needed later.
So, these minutes themselves are not inherently a bullish “positive for risk assets.”
Duoba You is more inclined to understand it this way:
The core of the overnight rally cannot be simply attributed to the meeting minutes;
After the minutes are released, the real question the market needs to answer is—
Can high prices absorb tighter policy expectations, or was it merely a reshuffling of leverage completed with high volatility?
Next, focus on two things:
When prices are consolidating at high levels, should positions continue to be chaotically piled up?
After macro expectations tighten, does the market’s risk appetite show a sustained change?
Events can explain the background, but they cannot replace the price structure.
Don’t, because of a single news headline, reduce the whole rally to one cause.
#比特币 #美联储 #FOMC #加密市场
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