The two hottest topics on the Square today are layered together: #FOMC会议纪要
First, look at the hard data on Binance ETH/USDT:
· Current price around $2,269
· 24h range $1,906 – $2,335 (volatility 22%)
· 24h +18.4%, 7 days +20.5%
· 24h trading value around $736M, 4.5x the 7-day average
· Market cap around $273B, still -54% from ATH $4,946
BTC 24h +7.7%, ETH is rising even faster. This isn’t just an ETH-only story—it’s a combo of “BTC first punches through 70,000 → ETH then chases + shorts get squeezed/closed.”
1. Macro backdrop: pressure on long-end U.S. Treasuries has eased somewhat
On 8/19, the U.S. Treasury announced that starting in September, it would raise the size of 10–30 year Treasury repo buybacks from $200M to at least $400M.
30-year US Treasury yields fell back from the high around 5.33%. BTC, ETH, and gold moved in the same window, and risk appetite got lifted.
Look at this logic calmly: Treasury buybacks ≠ QE. Putting $4B into the $40T US Treasury market is more about stabilizing sentiment, not unlimited liquidity. But it does reduce the ‘opportunity cost’ of holding risk assets.
ETH is up 18% today. The macro backdrop is just background—not the whole reason.
II. Liquidation structure: about $1.4B wiped out, shorts get smashed—ETH is being pushed along
CoinGlass data shows that on 8/19, total liquidations across the market were about $1.4B, with shorts making up the majority.
During BTC’s move from 6.4w to near 7w, highly leveraged short positions were liquidated one after another. Liquidation = forced buying = price pushed higher further = more liquidations. A classic short-squeeze chain.
ETH has more elasticity because:
· The ETH/BTC exchange rate has been falling for too long, so shorts are more concentrated on ETH
· $2,000 is a psychological line; once broken, it triggers algorithmic buy orders
· The 24h low at $1,906 is a needle (spike), not normal support
You can see in the chart that over the past 90 days, most of the time ETH has been chopping in the $1,800–$2,100 range. Today’s high-volume bullish candle is the first truly effective breakout above $2,000.
III. Relative strength: ETH finally outperforms BTC
24h: ETH +18.4%, BTC +7.7%
7 days: ETH +20.5%, BTC +9.7%
ETH/BTC exchange rate is separately +7% today
For the past two months, ETH has been criticized for ‘following up but not falling as much—or dropping even harder when it goes down.’ Today it’s the other way around.
For the ‘follow-up rally’ logic to hold, three conditions must all be met at the same time: BTC steadies + the ETH/BTC exchange rate keeps strengthening + volume keeps up. Today all three are met, but whether it can sustain depends on the next few days.
IV. 48h micro-structure: a one-time release on the 4h timeframe
· 8/19 evening: ETH spikes around $1,900, with a 4h low of $1,906
· 8/20 early morning: a single 4h candle lifts from $1,918 to $2,086, with $317M in volume
· 8/20 morning: another push to $2,335, with $328M in 4h volume
Two 4h bullish candles consumed the two-week range consolidation. This isn’t a slow grind higher—it’s a one-off liquidation + rotation.
V. Key price levels
Support $2,180 — Can it hold on this pullback today
Support $2,100 / $2,000 — If $2,000 breaks, the breakout fails
Resistance $2,280 — First hurdle: it broke through today but closed below
Resistance $2,335 — 24h high
Resistance $2,350 — Dense zone from earlier
Current price $2,269, stuck just below $2,280.
VI. My view (not investment advice)
Bullish short-term momentum, but don’t treat it as confirmation of a brand-new bull market. It’s still -54% away from ATH. This kind of rally driven by a short-squeeze unwind will retrace quickly. As long as $2,280 hasn’t been broken, it’s more like the late-stage probing of a squeeze.
Already in the car: if you can’t break $2,280, you can cut a portion first.
Not in yet: wait for a pullback to $2,180–$2,100, and look for reduced volume while holding steady. That’s more reliable than chasing a 5-minute bullish candle.
Do you think this move in ETH is the start of a follow-up rally, or the last surge after BTC breaks 70,000?
$ETH #BTC突破69000美元 #以太坊ETF批准预期
