ZRO and KAITO unlock on the same day tonight: supply events totaling over $30 million—how much has the market priced in in advance
In the evening of August 20 (Beijing time), two large unlock events land on the same day: LayerZero (ZRO) unlocks approximately 25.71 million tokens, worth about $19.39 million–$20.74 million (figures based on Foresight/RootData as of 8/16 and 8/12); Kaito (KAITO) unlocks approximately 32.60 million tokens, worth $11.48 million, accounting for 7.63% of circulating supply (Foresight 8/16 기준). Just these two projects, the total amount released this week exceeds $30 million (Foresight 8/16 기준). Discussions on Binance Square have already heated up in advance: KAITO’s expected discussion volume over the next 48 hours is 26,685, while the five-day average is only 10,790—about 2.47 times higher (asksurf 8/11 기준). The question is: how much expectation has the market already baked into the price?
1. The two unlocks’ specific terms
The unlock size for ZRO differs by about 10% across different data platforms. According to Token Unlocks/Foresight, it is 25.71 million tokens, about $19.39 million–$19.90 million, representing 4.40% of circulating supply (Foresight/chainthink uses an 8/16 denominator of 8/16); RootData’s 8/12 version is about 25.71 million tokens, about $20.74 million. baiyi’s 8/19 roundup states that platforms’ released amounts range from 24.70 million–25.70 million tokens, valued at $18.90 million–$19.90 million. ZRO currently has about 584.2 million tokens in circulation and 1 billion total supply (beincrypto 8/16). The price around 8/16 is about $0.77 (baiyi 8/19). ZRO follows a monthly release mechanism, and the 8/20 transaction is one of the monthly releases (baiyi 8/19).
KAITO’s denominator discrepancy is concentrated in how “supply” is defined. Based on already-circulating supply, 32.60 million tokens is 7.63%; based on total supply, it is about 3.26%, corresponding to roughly $29.40 million under the Tokenomist methodology (edaface/Tokenomist 8/18). Another platform had previously given a figure of 33.10 million tokens at the end of July—equal to a 13.7% increase in circulating supply at the time (KuCoin 7/26). The unlock targets core contributors (Tokenomist 8/20). After that, another ~6.58 million tokens (Sep 16–17) and ~18.10 million tokens (Sep 20) are expected to unlock (ChainCatcher/KuCoin 8/16).
2. How much have markets priced in early?
KAITO’s downtrend has been going on for two weeks. The snapshot price on 8/16 was about $0.3376, with a 7-day drop of 49.51% (Gate 8/16). Around 8/12, after product feature adjustments (removing Yaps), it fell to around $0.50 (Gate Plaza 8/12). A Tokenomist page snapshot is about $0.449 (8/13). From the pricing perspective, unlock expectations have already been absorbed to a significant extent. asksurf’s monitoring characterizes the current momentum qualitatively as “reflexive discussions caused by sell pressure,” and the main talking points spreading on the plaza are “unlock = sell pressure” and “short funding rates forcing a short squeeze” (asksurf 8/16).
Zooming out on the timeline, KAITO has gone through a full cycle of sentiment. In July it rose 122% over the month (KuCoin 7/26), then after unlock expectations and whale de-risking, it gave back about 57% of the weekly gain (edgen 8/15). The Fear & Greed Index fell to 31 in mid-August, putting it in the fear zone (Foresight 8/15 snapshot). Overall market risk appetite is weak, which accelerates the spread of the unlock narrative.
Perpetual markets are giving a mildly bearish signal: funding rate depth is negative, and shorts are crowded. A negative funding rate means shorts are paying, so when price rebounds, longs receive compensation—making rebounds prone to turning into a squeeze (asksurf 8/16, with explanation). ZRO’s pricing has been relatively calm: around $0.77 on 8/16, with no preemptive selling on the scale of KAITO (baiyi 8/19, plus analysis).
3. Unlocking and selling are two different things
Unlock (unlock) only means tokens enter a transferable state; it does not mean they are sold immediately. The actual behavior of core contributors after unlocking depends on on-chain transfers: whether tokens move from the allocation/vesting contract to exchange addresses, how much moves, and whether there is any holding/stalling after outgoing transfers (analysis methodology). In cases over the past few weeks, price reactions on unlock day have varied dramatically: some projects already sold off beforehand and then rebounded after unlock, while others unlocked and then dumped in volume, continuing to trend downward (analysis methodology; not naming specific projects).
KAITO’s on-chain structure is worth looking at separately. Some analysis points to an associated address that on 8/20 will unlock about 18.53 million tokens, with another 6.58 million tokens to unlock again on Sep 16–17. The analyst said they are not in a hurry to re-enter until a confirmation signal of spot supply release (crypto_painter’s view, as relayed by TokenPost 8/17). Address-level observations like this explain actual sell pressure better than just the “unlock amount.”
Broaden the view to the whole market: according to beincrypto’s 8/16 stats, this week the crypto market must absorb unlocks worth more than $556.7 million across various types of tokens (beincrypto 8/16; includes linear releases and differs from the single-transaction event scope for ZRO/KAITO). Earlier this week, ZK and SOLV had already each released about $1.30 million and $1.38 million, respectively (TechFlow 8/17). ZRO, KAITO, and SOON are simply the three most discussed transactions in that set.
4. Tonight through this week’s watch list
1. ZRO’s unlock time has two data-source views: 11:00 and 19:00 (Beijing time) (RootData 8/12 vs Token Unlocks 8/16). Use 19:00 as the standard mainstream view from Token Unlocks/Binance Square; the actual execution time is based on the on-chain vesting/beneficiary contract execution time;
2. After KAITO unlocks at 20:00, observe the proportion and speed of the 32.60 million tokens that enter exchanges. This is the direct signal for judging “unlock = sell-off” (analysis methodology);
3. Probability of a squeeze under negative funding: shorts are crowded + the mainstream trend (BTC approaching 70,000) is strengthening. The overlap of these two types of events could amplify KAITO’s short-term volatility (asksurf 8/16, plus analysis);
4. SOON: unlock about 20.24 million tokens (around $3.85–$3.90 million), representing 3.76% of circulating supply on 8/23 at 16:30 (Foresight/chainthink 8/16). There is a third leg of unlocks this week as well;
5. Following months: KAITO has two more unlocks on 9/16–17 and 9/20. ZRO follows a monthly linear release, so supply pressure is a continuous variable; any single-day event is only one segment of that (Tokenomist methodology plus analysis);
6. Mainstream market linkage: BTC at one point hovered near 70,000 after reporting $68,245; in the past 24 hours, about $1.84 billion in liquidations occurred (TokenPost 8/20). When unlock day collides with liquidation-heavy conditions, altcoin volatility will be amplified twice (analysis methodology).
5. Risks and methodology notes
1. There are multiple methodologies for unlock size. ZRO: $18.90 million–$20.74 million (Foresight/RootData/baiyi). KAITO: 7.63% of circulating supply vs 3.26% of total supply vs a 13.7% increase in circulating increment at the time (KuCoin 7/26). The main text lists them side by side;
2. Different timestamp snapshots for KAITO’s price: 0.3376 (8/16), 0.449 (Tokenomist 8/13), 0.50 (8/12). Refer to Binance’s real-time price;
3. The 2.47x discussion-volume is based on asksurf’s 8/11 prediction methodology;
4. Unlock targets and subsequent unlock timings follow Tokenomist/ChainCatcher methodologies. crypto_painter’s view reflects an individual analyst’s judgment;
5. “Unlock doesn’t equal sell-off” and the on-chain observation approach are analytical perspectives and do not constitute investment advice.
Summary
Tonight at 19:00 and 20:00, ZRO and KAITO will unlock one after the other. A supply event totaling over $30 million is colliding with the mainstream market trend as BTC approaches 70,000. KAITO has already priced in the move with a 49.51% week-to-week decline; ZRO has not yet shown any comparable scale of preemptive selling. After the unlock, the real variables are on-chain: whether tokens are sent to exchanges, how much, and whether they pause afterward. Will you trade ahead of the unlock, or wait for on-chain signals?
$KAITO $ZRO
#KAITO #ZRO #代币解锁 #加密市场 #Altcoin
The above content does not constitute investment advice