SPCX is around 139.7u for now, so I’ll stand by the side and watch the show first.
Compared with the surge to 145 the day before yesterday, the biggest change is that the contract positions started to be unloaded. Over yesterday alone, the open positions increased by another 20%—and then over the past day they pulled back by more than 6 points. In the remaining 7 hours, they’ve continued shrinking. The long positions that chased higher and piled up are basically squeezed out. The funding rate has also dropped back to around zero; in the recent rounds it’s all been non-positive. The “rollover/renewal” pressure for longs is actually eased by clearing positions.
But the price hasn’t given direction. On the 15-minute chart it’s hovering just slightly above the 20-line; the 50-line hasn’t been recovered yet. On the 4-hour chart, longs and shorts are basically split evenly. In the active order book, sell orders are still pressing against buy orders. On the big-player side it’s even more subtle—there are more accounts, but the level that really weighs on price is dominated by the short side.
To put it plainly: the leverage has been cleared by about enough, so the fuel for further downside is less. But there’s also no buying pressure stepping up to take over. I haven’t seen any obvious large spot orders flowing back, and the resting orders in the order book are about 50-50, slightly skewed toward selling.
So I won’t chase here, and I won’t flip to short either. The key is watching two “gates”: if the low at 136.9 holds, it can keep oscillating. If it breaks, downside room opens up. Conversely, only when it regains above 143 and re-expands volume can we talk about turning strong again.
Right now it’s more like waiting for the capital to choose a side—I’ll just take a small position and watch.
#spcx $SPCX
Compared with the surge to 145 the day before yesterday, the biggest change is that the contract positions started to be unloaded. Over yesterday alone, the open positions increased by another 20%—and then over the past day they pulled back by more than 6 points. In the remaining 7 hours, they’ve continued shrinking. The long positions that chased higher and piled up are basically squeezed out. The funding rate has also dropped back to around zero; in the recent rounds it’s all been non-positive. The “rollover/renewal” pressure for longs is actually eased by clearing positions.
But the price hasn’t given direction. On the 15-minute chart it’s hovering just slightly above the 20-line; the 50-line hasn’t been recovered yet. On the 4-hour chart, longs and shorts are basically split evenly. In the active order book, sell orders are still pressing against buy orders. On the big-player side it’s even more subtle—there are more accounts, but the level that really weighs on price is dominated by the short side.
To put it plainly: the leverage has been cleared by about enough, so the fuel for further downside is less. But there’s also no buying pressure stepping up to take over. I haven’t seen any obvious large spot orders flowing back, and the resting orders in the order book are about 50-50, slightly skewed toward selling.
So I won’t chase here, and I won’t flip to short either. The key is watching two “gates”: if the low at 136.9 holds, it can keep oscillating. If it breaks, downside room opens up. Conversely, only when it regains above 143 and re-expands volume can we talk about turning strong again.
Right now it’s more like waiting for the capital to choose a side—I’ll just take a small position and watch.
#spcx $SPCX