​1. Impact on the equities market (Equities Market

  • ​Global stocks and major indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, DAX):
    ​Sharp, immediate decline: A state of fear and uncertainty (Risk-Off) pushes investors to flee risky assets and major indices.

    • ​Rising oil and energy prices: Given the proximity of the confrontation to shipping lanes, oil pipelines, and the Middle Eastern sea straits, crude oil (Brent) prices rise to record levels. This increase fuels global inflation and negatively pressures technology stocks and consumer sectors.
      Beneficiaries (winning sectors):Shares ofDefense and weapons (such as Lockheed Martin, Raytheon) and shares inthe energy and oil sector see strong gains.
      Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST 100):

      • Temporary collapse and sharp decline: Turkish stocks are directly affected, and the market value of companies falls due to fears of Western economic sanctions being imposed or economic resources being directed toward military spending.

      • Decline of the Turkish lira: negative pressure on the lira versus the US dollar and the euro increases.

      • Israel’s stock exchange (TA-35):

        • Sharp drop and partial halt: a significant decline in bank, real estate, and technology stocks due to direct military risks.

      2. Impact on the cryptocurrency market


      • First shock (Short-Term Sell-Off)

        • Futures liquidation: in the first hours of the dispute, crypto markets treat positions as "high-risk assets" (Risk Assets). Bitcoin and alternative coins (Altcoins) fall by noticeable percentages due to panic and flight to cash.

        • Pressure on crypto companies: shares of mining companies and platforms (such as Coinbase) fall in parallel with the market downturn.

        • Demand for stablecoins (Stablecoins):

          • Demand rises exceptionally for USDT and USDC as a safe haven within the digital market to hedge against price volatility.
            Second phase (Mid-Term Recovery & Safe-Haven Narrative):

          • Shift toward Bitcoin: as the conflict continues and the value of local currencies declines (especially the Turkish lira), along with rising global inflation, investors return to Bitcoin as "digital gold" and a way to move and invest funds across borders away from banking restrictions.