DRAM is now around 55.3u, same as what I said in the previous note: at this level, don’t look for shorts, but don’t rush to chase either.
First, let’s sort out what happened over the past two days. Yesterday it dropped from 61.7 down to 54.8, falling by nearly 10%. Contract open interest was liquidated about 17% in a single day—that’s leverage unwinding, not a collapse in fundamentals. The key point is that after positions were cleared, open interest started stacking back up again. In the past 7 hours it added nearly 8%, and some people have re-entered at this level.
Even more obvious is the activity of big players. Whale accounts’ long ratio has reached 74%, and the long-to-short position ratio is above 3:1—and in the past 7 hours they’re still adding longs. The money’s direction is pretty clear: big players are taking delivery near the lows.
So why am I not chasing? Because the price hasn’t signaled anything yet. Over the last 24 hours it’s up only 0.04%, basically going nowhere. The active buy-side volume is only 49%, and contract trading volume has shrunk by more than 40%. Money is coming in, but it hasn’t started exerting force. The direction needs price confirmation.
Now watch two levels: if the area below 53.7 doesn’t break, this bottom structure will hold. If the price reclaims 57.5 on renewed volume, then the trend can be considered truly back. The middle portion is just chop.
My approach: observe at low levels. If a pullback to the 53.7–54.5 area doesn’t break, you can follow with a small position; there’s no need to chase highs. If it drops to this extent, shorting has poor cost-effectiveness.
#dram $DRAM
First, let’s sort out what happened over the past two days. Yesterday it dropped from 61.7 down to 54.8, falling by nearly 10%. Contract open interest was liquidated about 17% in a single day—that’s leverage unwinding, not a collapse in fundamentals. The key point is that after positions were cleared, open interest started stacking back up again. In the past 7 hours it added nearly 8%, and some people have re-entered at this level.
Even more obvious is the activity of big players. Whale accounts’ long ratio has reached 74%, and the long-to-short position ratio is above 3:1—and in the past 7 hours they’re still adding longs. The money’s direction is pretty clear: big players are taking delivery near the lows.
So why am I not chasing? Because the price hasn’t signaled anything yet. Over the last 24 hours it’s up only 0.04%, basically going nowhere. The active buy-side volume is only 49%, and contract trading volume has shrunk by more than 40%. Money is coming in, but it hasn’t started exerting force. The direction needs price confirmation.
Now watch two levels: if the area below 53.7 doesn’t break, this bottom structure will hold. If the price reclaims 57.5 on renewed volume, then the trend can be considered truly back. The middle portion is just chop.
My approach: observe at low levels. If a pullback to the 53.7–54.5 area doesn’t break, you can follow with a small position; there’s no need to chase highs. If it drops to this extent, shorting has poor cost-effectiveness.
#dram $DRAM