#fomc会议纪要 重点：
1. Doves absolutely not only have those 3 dissenting votes.
The minutes were written very clearly: “several” officials had already been prepared to support a rate hike, while “many” others believed that if inflation does not continue to fall, tighter policy would still be needed in the future. So Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan were only the three people who ultimately voted against, and they do not represent only three people who were worried about rates being too low.
2. Inflation is the overwhelming core issue, and there was no clear camp advocating for rate cuts.
Those supporting a rate hike believe price pressures are already fairly widespread; if tightening is not done now, the future may force policymakers to make faster, more painful consecutive hikes to catch up. Reuters also specifically noted that there was no discussion in the entire minutes about supporting rate cuts. This is clearly hawkish.
3. But this is a “hawkish Fed for July 29,” not today’s Fed.
At the July meeting, officials still believed the economy was expanding at a steady pace and that employment was basically balanced; however, after the meeting, U.S. July nonfarm payrolls came in at -23,000, retail sales at -0.6%, and CPI was also milder than before. In other words, the minutes reveal the true hawkish tone underneath, but the new economic data weakens the necessity of immediately hiking.
4. There is still a noticeable gap between the market and the Fed.
The latest rate pricing around the release of the minutes is still roughly 66% for no hike and 34% for a 25bp hike. What the minutes reveal is: “many believe that if inflation doesn’t come down, more hikes are still needed.” So the market is currently betting that September will wait first, while the Fed internal thinking is more like pausing rather than ending the rate-hike cycle.
How to understand the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and BTC
These minutes themselves belong to a marginally bearish risk-asset backdrop: in theory, they should support the U.S. dollar and short-end Treasury yields, putting some pressure on BTC. But tonight there is an even bigger variable— the U.S. Treasury Department expanded long-term Treasury buybacks, which have clearly pushed down the 30-year yield, and the U.S. dollar has also fallen to recent lows. So the market is not trading purely around the FOMC minutes.
BTC latest is still around $68,160, about +5.45% for the day. Intraday high was roughly $68,849. That means, at present, Crypto’s own squeeze dynamics and regulatory tailwinds are clearly outweighing this hawkish-leaning set of minutes.
1. Doves absolutely not only have those 3 dissenting votes.
The minutes were written very clearly: “several” officials had already been prepared to support a rate hike, while “many” others believed that if inflation does not continue to fall, tighter policy would still be needed in the future. So Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan were only the three people who ultimately voted against, and they do not represent only three people who were worried about rates being too low.
2. Inflation is the overwhelming core issue, and there was no clear camp advocating for rate cuts.
Those supporting a rate hike believe price pressures are already fairly widespread; if tightening is not done now, the future may force policymakers to make faster, more painful consecutive hikes to catch up. Reuters also specifically noted that there was no discussion in the entire minutes about supporting rate cuts. This is clearly hawkish.
3. But this is a “hawkish Fed for July 29,” not today’s Fed.
At the July meeting, officials still believed the economy was expanding at a steady pace and that employment was basically balanced; however, after the meeting, U.S. July nonfarm payrolls came in at -23,000, retail sales at -0.6%, and CPI was also milder than before. In other words, the minutes reveal the true hawkish tone underneath, but the new economic data weakens the necessity of immediately hiking.
4. There is still a noticeable gap between the market and the Fed.
The latest rate pricing around the release of the minutes is still roughly 66% for no hike and 34% for a 25bp hike. What the minutes reveal is: “many believe that if inflation doesn’t come down, more hikes are still needed.” So the market is currently betting that September will wait first, while the Fed internal thinking is more like pausing rather than ending the rate-hike cycle.
How to understand the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and BTC
These minutes themselves belong to a marginally bearish risk-asset backdrop: in theory, they should support the U.S. dollar and short-end Treasury yields, putting some pressure on BTC. But tonight there is an even bigger variable— the U.S. Treasury Department expanded long-term Treasury buybacks, which have clearly pushed down the 30-year yield, and the U.S. dollar has also fallen to recent lows. So the market is not trading purely around the FOMC minutes.
BTC latest is still around $68,160, about +5.45% for the day. Intraday high was roughly $68,849. That means, at present, Crypto’s own squeeze dynamics and regulatory tailwinds are clearly outweighing this hawkish-leaning set of minutes.