The main factors driving #Bitcoin’s rebound acceleration are two: on the macro side, the Ministry of Finance’s increased buybacks release liquidity and send a positive signal; on the industry side, tonight’s White House crypto meeting.
One improves liquidity expectations; one is a unique positive catalyst for the industry. So #BTC continues yesterday’s gains and rebounds strongly. However, my view remains unchanged—it's still too early to say “bull to the end.”
On the macro side, Bessent’s buyback increases are politically motivated, but whether investors should treat them as a set future policy will genuinely affect the liquidity environment of financial markets.
On the policy side, tonight’s White House crypto meeting—whether Trump can truly drive the CFTC and the SEC to issue new crypto administrative regulations to accelerate reform remains an uncertain factor.
On the technical side, during the day BTC broke out of the bottom range. First, we need to see whether it can hold above 67,400. Second, BTC has clearly run into resistance near the daily line resistance (69,000). Both of these require further policy and macro support to be effective in breaking through. After that, even if it breaks out, the BTC target around 74,200 would only complete a preliminary rebound. If you extend the daily trend, it even wouldn’t count as a strong rebound. So whether the trend can start to gain momentum is too early to conclude.
On the data side, although ETFs and crypto-related funds have shown net inflows, how long such net inflows from ETFs and funds can last needs to be validated again the next day. Once net inflows stop, theoretically BTC’s price rally momentum will weaken.
In summary, the current optimism is still in a cautiously optimistic stage—stronger than yesterday, but whether it’s macro, policy, data, or market action, there are still many things that need to be verified.
To directly kick off a new round of trend, there must be enough evidence that in the future the U.S. Treasury continues increasing long-term bond buybacks, reduces long-term bond issuance, and increases market liquidity. Tonight, Trump would also need to effectively push forward crypto reform policies—both are indispensable!
For the crypto community, the macro determines whether money is expensive or cheap. The “Clear Act” and tonight’s administrative-issue crypto meeting policies will determine whether investors should give them the green light!#FOMC会议纪要
One improves liquidity expectations; one is a unique positive catalyst for the industry. So #BTC continues yesterday’s gains and rebounds strongly. However, my view remains unchanged—it's still too early to say “bull to the end.”
On the macro side, Bessent’s buyback increases are politically motivated, but whether investors should treat them as a set future policy will genuinely affect the liquidity environment of financial markets.
On the policy side, tonight’s White House crypto meeting—whether Trump can truly drive the CFTC and the SEC to issue new crypto administrative regulations to accelerate reform remains an uncertain factor.
On the technical side, during the day BTC broke out of the bottom range. First, we need to see whether it can hold above 67,400. Second, BTC has clearly run into resistance near the daily line resistance (69,000). Both of these require further policy and macro support to be effective in breaking through. After that, even if it breaks out, the BTC target around 74,200 would only complete a preliminary rebound. If you extend the daily trend, it even wouldn’t count as a strong rebound. So whether the trend can start to gain momentum is too early to conclude.
On the data side, although ETFs and crypto-related funds have shown net inflows, how long such net inflows from ETFs and funds can last needs to be validated again the next day. Once net inflows stop, theoretically BTC’s price rally momentum will weaken.
In summary, the current optimism is still in a cautiously optimistic stage—stronger than yesterday, but whether it’s macro, policy, data, or market action, there are still many things that need to be verified.
To directly kick off a new round of trend, there must be enough evidence that in the future the U.S. Treasury continues increasing long-term bond buybacks, reduces long-term bond issuance, and increases market liquidity. Tonight, Trump would also need to effectively push forward crypto reform policies—both are indispensable!
For the crypto community, the macro determines whether money is expensive or cheap. The “Clear Act” and tonight’s administrative-issue crypto meeting policies will determine whether investors should give them the green light!#FOMC会议纪要