At around 02:00 this morning, the Fed meeting minutes are about to be released. Market attention for this set of minutes is very high. Based on the information available, my personal outlook is that it will most likely reflect a “weak hawkish” stance: not extremely aggressive, but overall leaning hawkish.
In July, although the interest rate was kept unchanged, three voting members supported a rate hike. This suggests that there may be even more officials privately inclined to raise rates. The minutes are likely to reflect concerns about oil prices pushing inflation higher. However, the minutes only record views from the July meeting and do not include subsequent data such as the weaker jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) and retail performance. Also, there are objective disagreements within the committee, so it will not be one-sided in support of a rate hike.
If hawkish signals are released, the US dollar and US Treasuries will strengthen, and BTC may face downward pressure; if the divisions are clear, it could generate rebound momentum. The market is likely to move in a “first sell-off, then rebound” roller-coaster pattern, with amplified volatility before and after the news. Don’t bet heavily on a direction—wait for the data to be released before taking action.
#FOMC会议纪要 $BTC
In July, although the interest rate was kept unchanged, three voting members supported a rate hike. This suggests that there may be even more officials privately inclined to raise rates. The minutes are likely to reflect concerns about oil prices pushing inflation higher. However, the minutes only record views from the July meeting and do not include subsequent data such as the weaker jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) and retail performance. Also, there are objective disagreements within the committee, so it will not be one-sided in support of a rate hike.
If hawkish signals are released, the US dollar and US Treasuries will strengthen, and BTC may face downward pressure; if the divisions are clear, it could generate rebound momentum. The market is likely to move in a “first sell-off, then rebound” roller-coaster pattern, with amplified volatility before and after the news. Don’t bet heavily on a direction—wait for the data to be released before taking action.
#FOMC会议纪要 $BTC
