PANews August 20, according to CoinDesk, asset management company VanEck’s latest report shows that Bitcoin has now triggered 8 of the 12 market capitulation indicators, indicating the market is nearing the historical bear-market bottom region. However, these signals do not mean the price has already bottomed out. The indicators mainly measure market conditions during extreme sell-offs, including the percentage drop in price from the peak, miners’ profitability, and the proportion of losses among coin holders. Over the past three months, all 12 indicators have reached their trigger ranges at some point.

VanEck指出，比特币此前几轮大底分别经历约 94%、85%、84%和78% 的最大跌幅，当时市场缺乏现货ETF资金支持，机构持仓规模较小，并伴随 Celsius、FTX 等大型行业事件冲击。相比之下，本轮市场结构已经发生变化。

From a cyclical perspective, VanEck analyzed four complete Bitcoin cycles since 2011 and found that the bear market, from the top to the bottom, averages about 11 months. If the exceptional cycle in 2011 is excluded, the average is about 12.7 months. Currently, Bitcoin’s decline from its October 2025 peak has entered its 10th month. The next potential accumulation window may occur from September to November this year.

VanEck concluded that the current capitulation indicators are more suitable as tools for long-term investors to judge the cycle position, rather than as short-term “buy-the-dip” signals. Historical data show that the advantages of investing based on these indicators are mainly reflected over a one-year horizon. In the coming months, the market may still continue to trade sideways and remain volatile.