Early Thursday at 02:00, the US Federal Reserve meeting minutes are about to be released. Market attention for this set of minutes is very high. Based on the information available, my personal view is that the outcome is likely to follow a “slightly hawkish” pattern: it won’t be extremely aggressive, but it will overall lean hawkish.
In July, even though the interest rate was kept unchanged, three voting members supported a rate hike. It’s reasonable to infer that there are even more officials privately inclined toward a hike. The minutes are likely to reflect concerns about oil prices pushing inflation higher. However, the minutes only record viewpoints from the July meeting and do not include subsequent data such as the weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls and retail figures. Also, there are objective differences among committee members, so they won’t all be uniformly in favor of a rate hike.
If hawkish signals are released, the USD and US Treasuries would strengthen, and BTC would face downward pressure. If the division among policymakers is clear, it could generate rebound momentum. The market is prone to a roller-coaster pattern—first a sell-off, then a rebound—along with amplified volatility around the news. Don’t take an oversized position betting on direction; wait for the data to be released before acting.
#美国存储股延续跌势 $BTC #FOMC会议纪要
In July, even though the interest rate was kept unchanged, three voting members supported a rate hike. It’s reasonable to infer that there are even more officials privately inclined toward a hike. The minutes are likely to reflect concerns about oil prices pushing inflation higher. However, the minutes only record viewpoints from the July meeting and do not include subsequent data such as the weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls and retail figures. Also, there are objective differences among committee members, so they won’t all be uniformly in favor of a rate hike.
If hawkish signals are released, the USD and US Treasuries would strengthen, and BTC would face downward pressure. If the division among policymakers is clear, it could generate rebound momentum. The market is prone to a roller-coaster pattern—first a sell-off, then a rebound—along with amplified volatility around the news. Don’t take an oversized position betting on direction; wait for the data to be released before acting.
#美国存储股延续跌势 $BTC #FOMC会议纪要
