đ¨ DO NOT BUY A HOUSE THIS YEAR, UNLESS YOUâRE A BILLIONAIRE!
Rent for now.
Wait for a 2008 type market crash to buy your first house.
Iâve seen every cycle from the 2008 crash to the 2020 blow-off top.
Take a look at this chart.
This 2006 bubble topped around 266.
If you think the current market is safe, youâre overlooking a deep structural stall.
Buying in 2026 is a TRAP, hereâs why:
Redfin data shows a massive imbalance: 36.8% more sellers than buyers. Demand is at its weakest level since the 2020 lockdown.
This isn't a healthy pullback, itâs a breakdown in market momentum.
Most homeowners are locked into ~3% mortgages. With 30-year fixed rates stuck around 6.5%, the cost of moving is simply too high.
That means no real price discovery. People canât afford to transact. Youâre paying a sticker price on an illiquid asset that hasnât been stress-tested by real volume.
Buying now locks you into a punishing monthly payment while upside remains limited.
If youâre levered 5:1 on a house that goes nowhere while you're paying 6.5% interest, youâre not compounding wealth, YOUâRE BLEEDING CAPITAL.
THE MACRO PLAY:
Wait for the exhaustion phase in late 2026/2027.
Thatâs when the "wait it out" crowd hits life catalysts (divorce, relocation, retirement) and is forced to sell into a cooling economy.
Thatâs when the affordability reset actually happens.
If you must buy, do it like a shark:
â Stress-test your income for a 20% drop.
â Keep your LTV conserstive (avoid negative equity).
â Only buy if you can survive a decade of flat prices.
Numbers donât care about feelings. Donât let your dream home turn into a zombie asset.
Iâve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.
Follow and turn notifications on. Iâll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.
Rent for now.
Wait for a 2008 type market crash to buy your first house.
Iâve seen every cycle from the 2008 crash to the 2020 blow-off top.
Take a look at this chart.
This 2006 bubble topped around 266.
If you think the current market is safe, youâre overlooking a deep structural stall.
Buying in 2026 is a TRAP, hereâs why:
Redfin data shows a massive imbalance: 36.8% more sellers than buyers. Demand is at its weakest level since the 2020 lockdown.
This isn't a healthy pullback, itâs a breakdown in market momentum.
Most homeowners are locked into ~3% mortgages. With 30-year fixed rates stuck around 6.5%, the cost of moving is simply too high.
That means no real price discovery. People canât afford to transact. Youâre paying a sticker price on an illiquid asset that hasnât been stress-tested by real volume.
Buying now locks you into a punishing monthly payment while upside remains limited.
If youâre levered 5:1 on a house that goes nowhere while you're paying 6.5% interest, youâre not compounding wealth, YOUâRE BLEEDING CAPITAL.
THE MACRO PLAY:
Wait for the exhaustion phase in late 2026/2027.
Thatâs when the "wait it out" crowd hits life catalysts (divorce, relocation, retirement) and is forced to sell into a cooling economy.
Thatâs when the affordability reset actually happens.
If you must buy, do it like a shark:
â Stress-test your income for a 20% drop.
â Keep your LTV conserstive (avoid negative equity).
â Only buy if you can survive a decade of flat prices.
Numbers donât care about feelings. Donât let your dream home turn into a zombie asset.
Iâve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.
Follow and turn notifications on. Iâll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.
