DRAM is now around 54.6u. It has been dumped from the 57.5 peak; in a single day it fell more than three percentage points. The price is still below the 15-minute moving average, so it doesn’t look strong.
But the leveraged side of this selloff has changed quite notably. Open interest on the contracts was cut by nearly 17% in one day, which suggests this pullback has cleared a round of leverage. Interestingly, over the past 7 hours, open interest has been replenished by more than 7 percentage points—meaning the money is gradually coming back.
At the same time, what the big players are doing is fairly clear: in terms of position ratio, the long side accounts for close to 77%, and they’re still adding—adding another ~18% over the last 7 hours. Meanwhile, passive buy orders make up 58%, and they’re also visibly recovering. Funding rates are still at a low level, so longs aren’t overcrowded; the cost to re-enter isn’t high.
In plain terms: earlier I kept posting that “it went up, but it lacked leveraged follow-through.” This pullback, in a way, has actually cleared that hidden risk. The only remaining issue is the price itself—right now it still hasn’t reclaimed the short-term moving average, and the order book’s sell side is a bit thicker. The short-term trend hasn’t been confirmed yet.
So I’m not in a hurry to chase here. First, I’ll see whether price can reclaim the moving average, or whether a pullback fails to break the prior low at 53.7. If you want to get on board, wait for confirmation—it’s more comfortable than rushing in early. If later the bids can’t keep up and the prior low won’t hold, then this rebound-and-replenishment will need to be treated as catching a falling knife and exited for now.
#dram $DRAM
But the leveraged side of this selloff has changed quite notably. Open interest on the contracts was cut by nearly 17% in one day, which suggests this pullback has cleared a round of leverage. Interestingly, over the past 7 hours, open interest has been replenished by more than 7 percentage points—meaning the money is gradually coming back.
At the same time, what the big players are doing is fairly clear: in terms of position ratio, the long side accounts for close to 77%, and they’re still adding—adding another ~18% over the last 7 hours. Meanwhile, passive buy orders make up 58%, and they’re also visibly recovering. Funding rates are still at a low level, so longs aren’t overcrowded; the cost to re-enter isn’t high.
In plain terms: earlier I kept posting that “it went up, but it lacked leveraged follow-through.” This pullback, in a way, has actually cleared that hidden risk. The only remaining issue is the price itself—right now it still hasn’t reclaimed the short-term moving average, and the order book’s sell side is a bit thicker. The short-term trend hasn’t been confirmed yet.
So I’m not in a hurry to chase here. First, I’ll see whether price can reclaim the moving average, or whether a pullback fails to break the prior low at 53.7. If you want to get on board, wait for confirmation—it’s more comfortable than rushing in early. If later the bids can’t keep up and the prior low won’t hold, then this rebound-and-replenishment will need to be treated as catching a falling knife and exited for now.
#dram $DRAM