SKHY is now around 162. Two days ago it was at 173. It dropped to 150 in a single day and bounced back—forming a deep V. I’m not in a hurry to act from this level; I’ll observe first.
This bounce is really strong—one big bullish candle within four hours, pulling from 150 to 166. But that’s also the problem: the spot big-order net inflow over the entire window is 0—no big money actually came in. Without real money backing the rebound, the more explosive the bounce, the more I’m skeptical.
The good news is that leverage has been cleared quite cleanly. Open interest dropped by more than 20% in a single day, and a lot of previously piled-up risk has been released. However, new capital is only making tentative entries; the active buy-side order ratio is still below 50%. The fee rate is close to 0—no one is willing to pay a premium to go long.
There’s something a bit interesting on the large-holder side: account-based positioning is still loading up long positions—long exposure is over 55%. But the actual position-based count is just above 50%. The money and the talk don’t match. This kind of divergence is common—paper longs can’t hold up the price.
Right now, it doesn’t seem able to fall further, but there’s also no sign of new capital. The key is whether the low area can be held and when funds will re-enter. From this level, the cost-performance for both longs and shorts is mediocre. I’ll first see how capital chooses, and only act once it’s confirmed—waiting is more comfortable than betting on direction here.
#skhy $SKHY
This bounce is really strong—one big bullish candle within four hours, pulling from 150 to 166. But that’s also the problem: the spot big-order net inflow over the entire window is 0—no big money actually came in. Without real money backing the rebound, the more explosive the bounce, the more I’m skeptical.
The good news is that leverage has been cleared quite cleanly. Open interest dropped by more than 20% in a single day, and a lot of previously piled-up risk has been released. However, new capital is only making tentative entries; the active buy-side order ratio is still below 50%. The fee rate is close to 0—no one is willing to pay a premium to go long.
There’s something a bit interesting on the large-holder side: account-based positioning is still loading up long positions—long exposure is over 55%. But the actual position-based count is just above 50%. The money and the talk don’t match. This kind of divergence is common—paper longs can’t hold up the price.
Right now, it doesn’t seem able to fall further, but there’s also no sign of new capital. The key is whether the low area can be held and when funds will re-enter. From this level, the cost-performance for both longs and shorts is mediocre. I’ll first see how capital chooses, and only act once it’s confirmed—waiting is more comfortable than betting on direction here.
#skhy $SKHY