The price of Zcash is approaching a critical moment. The technical structure is weakening, momentum is stalling, and derivative positions are showing a clear downward bias. About 15 million dollars are directed towards a decline in Zcash perpetuals, indicating an increasing conviction that a collapse is coming.
At the same time, there is only one group quietly paying to respond. The giant whales are adding while most others are moving away. The question now is whether this turns into a complete collapse or a rare reversal in centralization.
Technical risks and 15 million dollars in negative positions align.
The Zcash price chart shows increasing risk.
A head and shoulders pattern is forming on the daily chart, with the neckline converging near the 301 dollar area. This structure usually indicates trend exhaustion, especially when the price fails to regain its previous highs. Zcash is currently trading below the right shoulder, maintaining an active 36% collapse pattern.
Momentum confirms risk.
Between January 14 and January 27, the price of Zcash formed a higher low, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stalled near the 49 level instead of climbing higher. The RSI measures momentum. When the price weakens while the strength index fails to improve, it indicates a loss of strength. This is not consolidation. It suggests declining demand, which often appears before collapses rather than recoveries.
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The derivatives positioning reinforces this view.
In the perpetual BINANCE pair ZEC, over 15 million dollars are in short liquidation leverage, while long leverage approaches 6 million dollars. Short positions outnumber long positions by more than 2.5 times, indicating that traders are in a bearish stance rather than a neutral volatility. This type of imbalance usually appears when markets expect support to fail rather than continue.
Together, the structure, momentum, and position indicate heightened collapse risks.
Giant whales are quietly adding while others step back.
Point behavior tells a completely different story.
The leading Zcash addresses in the top 100 increased their holdings by 4.21% over the past 24 hours, raising their total balance to 44,264 ZEC units. This is not aggressive accumulation, but it is notable given the lack of broader interest elsewhere.
Divergence is important. Smart money wallets are stable. Standard whale wallets have reduced exposure. Public figure wallets show limited activity. Only the giant whales are adding, and they are doing so cautiously rather than chasing price.
Additionally, spot market activity has sharply declined. Net outflows, which peaked near 15.60 million dollars, have fallen to around 2.04 million dollars, representing an 87% decrease in spot buying pressure.
This divergence indicates intent.
It seems that the giant whales are early in positioning around the support, betting that the neckline holds or that the downside becomes excessive. Everyone remains defensive.
If the price of Zcash collapses, the giant whales will be early and exposed. If support holds, they are benefiting from positioning against the consensus.
Zcash price levels that determine collapse or survival.
On the downside, a loss of 350 dollars increases pressure towards 316 dollars. A daily close below 301 dollars will break the neckline and activate the complete head and shoulders structure. Below that, downside risks open towards 288 dollars, with a potential deeper weakness if selling accelerates.
On the positive side, the bearish case weakens if Zcash regains 405 dollars, which giant whales could bet on. Moving above 456 dollars will further strengthen structural stability.
The complete bearish setup only vanishes if the price regains 558 dollars, the head of the bearish pattern, which is currently well above market levels.
