The recent financial market can best be described as 'magical': gold and silver have been rising steadily, U.S. stocks are also moving upward, yet the cryptocurrency market has been unable to emerge from the expected trend.

But in my opinion, the weakening of the cryptocurrency market has never been due to the assets themselves losing value, but rather being hampered by a systemic deleveraging, which is the aftereffect of the 1010 incident. In this market turbulence, a technical issue at a major trading platform triggered an automatic deleveraging mechanism, forcing the market to release risk exposures worth hundreds of billions of dollars.

This situation is common in the financial market: when leverage is forcibly removed, the assets with the best liquidity often drop the most, and the most sensitive markets are the easiest to amplify panic, leading to short-term prices often deviating from fundamentals. Bitcoin, meanwhile, just happens to hit all three of these conditions, so this decline is essentially a structural stampede rather than a collapse in value.

Combining market trends and data, I see the most overlooked key signal in the current cryptocurrency market: the sell-off may be nearing its end. Forced selling in the market is decreasing, risk release is basically completed, and the overall market is gradually returning to rationality. I also have an optimistic judgment from an institutional perspective: this may become the 'mildest cycle adjustment' in Bitcoin's history, and Bitcoin is likely to establish a new price platform in the range of $80,000 - $90,000 before seeking upward momentum - this is not a short-term call, but an underlying judgment on the cryptocurrency market cycle.

What deserves more attention than short-term prices is the underlying changes happening in the cryptocurrency market: the attitude of institutions has completely turned.

In the past few years, institutions have debated whether 'Bitcoin counts as an asset', but now, the core question they are discussing has changed to 'how much to allocate'. It is important to note that what can truly drive the long-term trend of the financial market has never been the emotions of retail investors but rather long-term funds such as pensions, sovereign funds, family offices, and large asset management firms. These funds do not care about weekly fluctuations; they focus on three core aspects: whether they have low correlation, whether they can hedge traditional market risks, and whether they possess long-term allocation value. Currently, more and more institutions are beginning to view Bitcoin as an independent asset class, and the importance of this far exceeds the short-term fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market.

But unfortunately, the market's attention has completely gone off track. The 'institutional allocation logic' that should have been a key discussion point is being ignored, while the entire network is debating 'who should be responsible for the crash', 'whether systemic risks exist', and 'whether there are problems with the platforms', with even extreme voices emotionally attacking industry figures. This is actually a typical phenomenon in financial markets: when prices fall, people tend to look for a 'scapegoat'; when prices rise, they are busy looking for 'faith'. However, truly mature investors are never swayed by emotions; they always focus on market structure rather than short-term sentiment.

This precisely highlights the core difference between retail investors and mature investors. 99.99% of retail investors can only see the short-term prices of the cryptocurrency market; they are either FOMO chasing highs or panicking and cutting losses, which is why most retail investors ultimately lose money. Just like the group of people now crazily praising gold, those who looked down on gold investors during the decade-long consolidation of gold probably also had the lowest opinion of them. This is the typical retail mindset: chasing highs and selling lows, only focusing on the present.

And the current sentiment in the cryptocurrency market precisely confirms this - almost all discussions about cryptocurrency are filled with pessimistic voices. However, for those who understand the market, this is exactly a positive signal: the selling pressure in the market is basically cleared out, and at most there will be one more slight dip before all the floating capital is completely cleared.

In fact, a simple detail can reveal the true state of the current cryptocurrency market: according to past liquidity rules, with such a strong blood-sucking trend in gold and silver, Bitcoin should have fallen to a low of $40,000 - $50,000, but the reality is that Bitcoin was strongly supported and did not reach this expected position. This level of support has directly proven that the bull market has not ended; it is merely a phase adjustment, and there's no need for excessive rebuttal. Let's look at the market again in three months, and the answer will naturally be revealed.

And all of this aligns with the underlying principles of the financial market, which I have always regarded as a guiding principle:

When the market is at its most pessimistic, risks are often already released;

True excess returns only occur before consensus is formed;

When everyone understands, the dividend is usually over.

The current cryptocurrency market is just another validation of this principle.