To be honest, when the trap is right in front of me, this $SKHYNIX order book actually makes me even more clear-headed. That insanely high funding fee isn’t a free lunch from the sky—it’s longs continuously transfusing blood to the shorts. When you put the number—an annualized rate of over 800—on the table, who wouldn’t be suspicious? After watching the market for so many years, I’ve found that when such extreme fee rates appear, it’s usually the moment when emotions are at their most excited—and also the point most likely to be harvested by a reversal.
Now, the market structure is actually quite interesting. The price keeps grinding at the high end, but volume and momentum haven’t kept up. I’m used to looking at the risk-reward ratio. Chasing longs from here might only get you the very last bite of meat, while the loss you take could be an entire stretch of the prior trend.
On the other hand, if this funding-fee pressure keeps suppressing the market, and longs’ cost basis rises further and further, how long can they keep holding on? The market won’t forever pay for high leverage. Sooner or later, someone will be the first to run. Some might say that high fees mean everyone is bullish. But I don’t see it that way—when sentiment gets to the extreme, it’s often in the short-term top zone. We don’t need to guess exactly where the top is. All we need to know is that the downside room from here is bigger than the upside, and the odds are on our side.
On the four-hour timeframe, the price center of gravity is slowly moving down. Every rebound’s high point is getting lower. I don’t think this is a healthy breakout structure. I’ll probably reassess the direction only when the funding fee falls and volume starts to expand again. Until then, stay alert—don’t get fooled by superficial strength. In this business, living long matters more than making money fast.
Gaze upon the vastness of mountains and seas; observe the market’s subtle movements.
Travel with Uncle Xiong, and witness every rise and fall in profits and losses.
#SKHYNIX
Click below to trade 👇
Now, the market structure is actually quite interesting. The price keeps grinding at the high end, but volume and momentum haven’t kept up. I’m used to looking at the risk-reward ratio. Chasing longs from here might only get you the very last bite of meat, while the loss you take could be an entire stretch of the prior trend.
On the other hand, if this funding-fee pressure keeps suppressing the market, and longs’ cost basis rises further and further, how long can they keep holding on? The market won’t forever pay for high leverage. Sooner or later, someone will be the first to run. Some might say that high fees mean everyone is bullish. But I don’t see it that way—when sentiment gets to the extreme, it’s often in the short-term top zone. We don’t need to guess exactly where the top is. All we need to know is that the downside room from here is bigger than the upside, and the odds are on our side.
On the four-hour timeframe, the price center of gravity is slowly moving down. Every rebound’s high point is getting lower. I don’t think this is a healthy breakout structure. I’ll probably reassess the direction only when the funding fee falls and volume starts to expand again. Until then, stay alert—don’t get fooled by superficial strength. In this business, living long matters more than making money fast.
Gaze upon the vastness of mountains and seas; observe the market’s subtle movements.
Travel with Uncle Xiong, and witness every rise and fall in profits and losses.
#SKHYNIX
Click below to trade 👇