$SPCX This wave’s strength—August 20’s 7% release—may actually be the real stress test.
Now the stock price is strengthening ahead of schedule and looks strong. But the question is: does this reflect funds genuinely looking ahead to the next leg of the rally, or is someone pushing the price up before the release to create liquidity for 319 million shares ahead of time? Until the release actually lands, neither answer can be confirmed. But judging from the distribution of positions, 150—157 is precisely the zone where centralized profit-taking is relatively likely to occur. If it truly reaches that level, there won’t be a shortage of sell orders above.
So right now I’m more focused on a few levels below. If 146.23 can’t be reclaimed, there’s no need to even talk about 150—that would indicate the quality of this upswing is rather mediocre. If it then falls back into the 143—145 range, I can only interpret it as funds still propping things up. The truly dangerous point is when the VWAP around 141.7 breaks. If it then fails to hold 140 and continues lower, once August 20 sees a volume-driven breakdown and a subsequent retest can’t get back above 140, then it’s basically safe to understand that this rally ahead of the release was merely manufacturing a “bag-holder.”
With this kind of price action, there’s no need to fantasize about “selling expectations, buying reality.” After new shares hit the market, if the market can’t even absorb 140, 135 will very likely be tested again. And if 135 also fails to show clear support, the downside room could continue to expand.
So this time, I won’t be optimistic just because it’s been rising before the release. Instead, I feel that the closer we get to August 20, the more we need to guard against a real profit-taking. If the funds are truly aiming for a reshuffle tied to September 18’s Nasdaq rebalancing, then after the release they should at least demonstrate very strong absorption capability. If they can’t even pass this stage, then all that “early rushing” may simply be setting the table for the release-day selling.
In short, it’s not about whether it can rally right now—it’s about whether anyone is willing to take the final baton after the price is pushed up.
Now the stock price is strengthening ahead of schedule and looks strong. But the question is: does this reflect funds genuinely looking ahead to the next leg of the rally, or is someone pushing the price up before the release to create liquidity for 319 million shares ahead of time? Until the release actually lands, neither answer can be confirmed. But judging from the distribution of positions, 150—157 is precisely the zone where centralized profit-taking is relatively likely to occur. If it truly reaches that level, there won’t be a shortage of sell orders above.
So right now I’m more focused on a few levels below. If 146.23 can’t be reclaimed, there’s no need to even talk about 150—that would indicate the quality of this upswing is rather mediocre. If it then falls back into the 143—145 range, I can only interpret it as funds still propping things up. The truly dangerous point is when the VWAP around 141.7 breaks. If it then fails to hold 140 and continues lower, once August 20 sees a volume-driven breakdown and a subsequent retest can’t get back above 140, then it’s basically safe to understand that this rally ahead of the release was merely manufacturing a “bag-holder.”
With this kind of price action, there’s no need to fantasize about “selling expectations, buying reality.” After new shares hit the market, if the market can’t even absorb 140, 135 will very likely be tested again. And if 135 also fails to show clear support, the downside room could continue to expand.
So this time, I won’t be optimistic just because it’s been rising before the release. Instead, I feel that the closer we get to August 20, the more we need to guard against a real profit-taking. If the funds are truly aiming for a reshuffle tied to September 18’s Nasdaq rebalancing, then after the release they should at least demonstrate very strong absorption capability. If they can’t even pass this stage, then all that “early rushing” may simply be setting the table for the release-day selling.
In short, it’s not about whether it can rally right now—it’s about whether anyone is willing to take the final baton after the price is pushed up.
