XAG is now at 63.1u, and it has just come down to the vicinity of the 24-hour low. It’s only a breath away from 62.6.
First, the conclusion: at this level, I won’t chase a short, and I’m not in a hurry to bottom-fish either. I’ll first see whether the 63 line can hold.
In the short term, things are indeed weak—four-hour chart shows five consecutive red candles, the daily trend is also heading downward, and on the 15-minute chart the dual moving averages are stacked overhead. Over the past 24 hours the drop is more than three points. Judging purely from the order flow, the bears have the advantage.
But the data just below is interesting. While the price is falling, the open interest for the day has increased by 16 points. On the big-player side, the long accounts and positions are still adding on—both up 8–9 points over 7 hours. The funding rate hasn’t turned negative either; it remains mildly bullish. In the spot order book, the buy-wall is still slightly thicker than the sell-wall.
In plain terms: some people are smashing it lower, while others are absorbing at this level. I’ve seen this combination before—either it’s low-level accumulation, or it’s a catch-and-hold that then needs more grinding.
So don’t rush to pick a side. If 63 holds, you can then judge the quality of a potential rebound. If 62.6 breaks, only then would trend-following positioning be worth serious consideration. At this moment, let the market give us the answer.
#xag $XAG
First, the conclusion: at this level, I won’t chase a short, and I’m not in a hurry to bottom-fish either. I’ll first see whether the 63 line can hold.
In the short term, things are indeed weak—four-hour chart shows five consecutive red candles, the daily trend is also heading downward, and on the 15-minute chart the dual moving averages are stacked overhead. Over the past 24 hours the drop is more than three points. Judging purely from the order flow, the bears have the advantage.
But the data just below is interesting. While the price is falling, the open interest for the day has increased by 16 points. On the big-player side, the long accounts and positions are still adding on—both up 8–9 points over 7 hours. The funding rate hasn’t turned negative either; it remains mildly bullish. In the spot order book, the buy-wall is still slightly thicker than the sell-wall.
In plain terms: some people are smashing it lower, while others are absorbing at this level. I’ve seen this combination before—either it’s low-level accumulation, or it’s a catch-and-hold that then needs more grinding.
So don’t rush to pick a side. If 63 holds, you can then judge the quality of a potential rebound. If 62.6 breaks, only then would trend-following positioning be worth serious consideration. At this moment, let the market give us the answer.
#xag $XAG