BTC today Bajie only gives one judgment: first down then up, and the close is still relatively weak.
Last night it surged from 65058 and then pulled back. Although the 4-hour chart is still holding above 64000, there’s a long upper wick around 65000. On the 1-hour chart, the high points have been stepping down from 64862 to 64756, and the rebounds have less and less follow-through. Right now the sideways consolidation around 64500 doesn’t look like strong accumulation; it looks more like a pullback sign after high-level rotation and turnover.
Today, the main force is more likely to first sweep the longs below. The first leg is likely to be 64200—64000; if it’s weaker, then 63700—63500. If price dips and leaves a lower wick, then manages to reclaim 64200, only then will the second leg of a rebound begin—first targeting 64600—64800, and then trying 65000—65100. Today’s future low is more likely to show up first. I’m forecasting the low to be in 64000—64200, with an extreme dip to 63500—63700. Future highs to watch are 64800—65100. Unless there is a confirmed breakout, I won’t treat 65350+ as the default target.
Also, the funding/flows don’t support chasing longs directly: after price rises, OI declines. The long-vs-short account ratio is still slightly more on the long side, and the funding rate is positive. Even though active buy pressure has strengthened, it still couldn’t push the price through 64800, which suggests supply remains overhead. Only if the 4-hour chart increases volume and recovers above 65050, then pulls back and holds above 64800, will the weak “down then up” path today be invalid. Otherwise, the closer the rebound gets to 65000, the more it looks like distributing/deleveraging from the top side.
Last night it surged from 65058 and then pulled back. Although the 4-hour chart is still holding above 64000, there’s a long upper wick around 65000. On the 1-hour chart, the high points have been stepping down from 64862 to 64756, and the rebounds have less and less follow-through. Right now the sideways consolidation around 64500 doesn’t look like strong accumulation; it looks more like a pullback sign after high-level rotation and turnover.
Today, the main force is more likely to first sweep the longs below. The first leg is likely to be 64200—64000; if it’s weaker, then 63700—63500. If price dips and leaves a lower wick, then manages to reclaim 64200, only then will the second leg of a rebound begin—first targeting 64600—64800, and then trying 65000—65100. Today’s future low is more likely to show up first. I’m forecasting the low to be in 64000—64200, with an extreme dip to 63500—63700. Future highs to watch are 64800—65100. Unless there is a confirmed breakout, I won’t treat 65350+ as the default target.
Also, the funding/flows don’t support chasing longs directly: after price rises, OI declines. The long-vs-short account ratio is still slightly more on the long side, and the funding rate is positive. Even though active buy pressure has strengthened, it still couldn’t push the price through 64800, which suggests supply remains overhead. Only if the 4-hour chart increases volume and recovers above 65050, then pulls back and holds above 64800, will the weak “down then up” path today be invalid. Otherwise, the closer the rebound gets to 65000, the more it looks like distributing/deleveraging from the top side.