QQQ is now around 717u, and it's right near the 24-hour low. First, here's my judgment: I won't chase a short here, and I’m not in a hurry to bottom-fish. I’ll first see whether price can hold up at the lows.
The order book trend downward is concrete—six consecutive four-hour bearish candles, and the daily chart direction is also pinned downward. Price has been ground from 730 down to 717, just one step away from the 24-hour low. On the trend side, the bears still hold the dominant position.
However, I noticed that at the lower level, some people are stepping in to buy. The contract’s aggressive buy volume over the past seven hours has reached about 80%, with aggressive buys making up close to 70%. The large-accounts’ long exposure has also been lifted by four percentage points, and the long-to-short ratio has moved in a way that’s over double—meaning longs have gained pressure. On the spot order book, the top 20 bid levels are nearly one time thicker than the asks. This still isn’t a full reversal, but at least the sell pressure is starting to get absorbed.
Add to that the fact that open interest has slightly decreased and the funding rate is basically staying around zero—both sides are not crowded. There’s no side being pushed by leverage such that a squeeze scenario can even be played out.
So what the market looks like right now, plain and simple, is: price is still weak, but bid support at the lows is strengthening. In this kind of position, it's easiest for both sides to get hit—if you chase shorts you’re afraid there’s support at the low; if you chase longs you’re afraid the downside structure hasn’t finished breaking down yet.
My approach is to observe first: wait for price to stabilize at the low and for this leg of the down move to be broken using a volume expansion. If you act now, the risk-reward on both sides isn’t great.
#qqq $QQQ
The order book trend downward is concrete—six consecutive four-hour bearish candles, and the daily chart direction is also pinned downward. Price has been ground from 730 down to 717, just one step away from the 24-hour low. On the trend side, the bears still hold the dominant position.
However, I noticed that at the lower level, some people are stepping in to buy. The contract’s aggressive buy volume over the past seven hours has reached about 80%, with aggressive buys making up close to 70%. The large-accounts’ long exposure has also been lifted by four percentage points, and the long-to-short ratio has moved in a way that’s over double—meaning longs have gained pressure. On the spot order book, the top 20 bid levels are nearly one time thicker than the asks. This still isn’t a full reversal, but at least the sell pressure is starting to get absorbed.
Add to that the fact that open interest has slightly decreased and the funding rate is basically staying around zero—both sides are not crowded. There’s no side being pushed by leverage such that a squeeze scenario can even be played out.
So what the market looks like right now, plain and simple, is: price is still weak, but bid support at the lows is strengthening. In this kind of position, it's easiest for both sides to get hit—if you chase shorts you’re afraid there’s support at the low; if you chase longs you’re afraid the downside structure hasn’t finished breaking down yet.
My approach is to observe first: wait for price to stabilize at the low and for this leg of the down move to be broken using a volume expansion. If you act now, the risk-reward on both sides isn’t great.
#qqq $QQQ