Price rises driven by policy tailwinds, but BTC is not yet at a fully optimistic stage!

Today is a rare instance where the US stock market and #Bitcoin show opposing trends, and given that the macro environment is not good, it is obviously due to the effect of positive news specifically for crypto—August 19th’s White House crypto meeting #比特币永续合约资金费率创20个月新高

In this meeting, it is clear that Trump, after seeing the (Clear Act) blocked in Congress, is trying to push forward crypto reform through the SEC and CFTC’s administrative regulatory measures.

Remember that on August 12th, SEC Chair Paul Atkins attempted to move the (crypto regulation) administrative bill toward an SEC meeting, but it was quickly canceled on the grounds of a “conflict of meetings.” Obviously, the bill still faces significant difficulty. In fact, the biggest issue for the SEC is that crypto regulation is still in conflict with the CFTC and remains unclear.

As for this White House crypto meeting—once Trump came out to actively push things forward, it likely centered on discussions about how to delineate the SCE and CFTC regulatory approaches. This can be seen as the best contingency plan in case the (Clear Act) can’t be pushed through. So for crypto, this is an industry-specific positive catalyst.

However, although the tailwinds have driven #BTC upward, the market has not yet shifted into a fully optimistic trend. The first issue is that ETF flows are still not confirmed as bullish. Second, BTC is still in a low-liquidity phase. In this rebound, it’s more likely due to short-covering.

As of now, around 65,000 there remains a clear divergence between longs and shorts. Going forward, 64,200 as the support on the hourly trend is the key point—watch whether price can hold above it effectively, especially on the daily timeframe. After that, watch how 65,000 can break through effectively. Once it breaks out, the next resistance level is around 67,400.

Key areas to watch next are in three layers:

1, On the technical side: whether 65,000 can break through and hold. If it breaks and holds, then look for around 67,400.

2, On the policy front, did the White House meeting on August 19 actually deliver any substantive policy push? If there were pushes, the positive sentiment continues; if not, sentiment will fade.

3, Regarding the ETF side of the market data, will we see a return to positive net inflows? Positive net inflows into ETFs would confirm an uptrend and increase momentum from sentiment.

Let’s record the market data:

I compared the market data from August 14. Market cap is up slightly, but the increase is mainly concentrated in BTC—clearly, overall bullish sentiment has not spread.

Trading volume on August 14 was basically the same. Today there was a larger fluctuation, but volume didn’t increase noticeably; market liquidity remains weak.

On the funding side, total volume has increased by 200 million, but compared with the 14th, mainstream funds’ USDC saw a net outflow of 178 million, and USDT also did not record net inflows. Evidently, similar to the ETF data, we need to wait for confirmation that funds are returning.

Summary for this phase:

Although policy tailwinds have led to price increases, we still can’t be fully optimistic right now. On the technical side, BTC is still trading in a range and has not achieved a valid breakout. Trading volume remains sluggish; the White House meeting on August 19 leaves policy outcomes up in the air. ETFs and mainstream funds have not returned to confirm this either—so for now, let’s stay cautiously optimistic!