Just finished reviewing STAR’s on-chain data. It dropped 22.8% to 0.1094—this level is interesting. Trading volume of 50M isn’t small, but compared with the volume spike from the past few days, it looks more like long/short position switching than panic liquidation.
$STAR dipped as low as 0.10863, exactly hovering along the upper edge of a prior dense-holder cost area. If this were truly a breakdown, there shouldn’t be such precise support. The evidence for a shakeout is: there are continuous accumulation traces from large orders in the 0.11–0.115 range, and the perpetual futures funding rate has turned negative, indicating the shorts are paying for their positions—this isn’t a typical downtrend structure.
Of course, if you only look at the daily chart, this is a breakdown bearish candle. But the number of active on-chain addresses hasn’t fallen; instead, it increased by 12% during the drop. This kind of divergence usually suggests someone is catching the knife.
My take: this is a violent shakeout. But don’t rush to bottom-buy—wait for the 0.105–0.108 area to see reduced volume and stabilize. If it breaks below 0.105 on increased volume, then all of the above analysis is void—that would be a real crash.
$STAR dipped as low as 0.10863, exactly hovering along the upper edge of a prior dense-holder cost area. If this were truly a breakdown, there shouldn’t be such precise support. The evidence for a shakeout is: there are continuous accumulation traces from large orders in the 0.11–0.115 range, and the perpetual futures funding rate has turned negative, indicating the shorts are paying for their positions—this isn’t a typical downtrend structure.
Of course, if you only look at the daily chart, this is a breakdown bearish candle. But the number of active on-chain addresses hasn’t fallen; instead, it increased by 12% during the drop. This kind of divergence usually suggests someone is catching the knife.
My take: this is a violent shakeout. But don’t rush to bottom-buy—wait for the 0.105–0.108 area to see reduced volume and stabilize. If it breaks below 0.105 on increased volume, then all of the above analysis is void—that would be a real crash.