SNDK is around 1620 now. I’m leaning bearish on direction, so I won’t take action yet.
The past couple of days it was ranging around 1650. I said I’d watch and not chase—now the answer is out. The daily chart printed a big bearish engulfing candle, and both the 4-hour and daily trends have fully flipped to DOWN. Even on the 15-minute chart, both moving averages have been broken. That prior 20% breakout has basically been given back.
The key is the funding side: in the futures, open interest shrank 13% in half a day, and the active buy order flow is still moving downward. In the eight funding-rate periods, there hasn’t been a single positive reading—it's been stuck around the zero line and even turned negative. People chasing long positions aren’t even willing to pay out the open-position premium. Big players are even clearer: shorts make up nearly 70% of the accounts, and over the past seven hours that ratio is still being pushed higher. This isn’t a shakeout—it’s the capital from the earlier rally exiting.
The only notable thing on the order book is that the spot buying orders are nearly half again as thick as the sell orders, and there are bids being placed around 1620. But spot large-transaction inflows are basically zero, which indicates this is passive absorption rather than active capital entering. Even if this type of bid can hold up for a while, it won’t hold when the funding keeps withdrawing.
So my judgment: until the trend is repaired, don’t rush to bottom-pick a falling knife. Wait for the market to stabilize at the lows and for capital to flow back in. For now, staying on the sidelines feels better than acting.
#sndk $SNDK
The past couple of days it was ranging around 1650. I said I’d watch and not chase—now the answer is out. The daily chart printed a big bearish engulfing candle, and both the 4-hour and daily trends have fully flipped to DOWN. Even on the 15-minute chart, both moving averages have been broken. That prior 20% breakout has basically been given back.
The key is the funding side: in the futures, open interest shrank 13% in half a day, and the active buy order flow is still moving downward. In the eight funding-rate periods, there hasn’t been a single positive reading—it's been stuck around the zero line and even turned negative. People chasing long positions aren’t even willing to pay out the open-position premium. Big players are even clearer: shorts make up nearly 70% of the accounts, and over the past seven hours that ratio is still being pushed higher. This isn’t a shakeout—it’s the capital from the earlier rally exiting.
The only notable thing on the order book is that the spot buying orders are nearly half again as thick as the sell orders, and there are bids being placed around 1620. But spot large-transaction inflows are basically zero, which indicates this is passive absorption rather than active capital entering. Even if this type of bid can hold up for a while, it won’t hold when the funding keeps withdrawing.
So my judgment: until the trend is repaired, don’t rush to bottom-pick a falling knife. Wait for the market to stabilize at the lows and for capital to flow back in. For now, staying on the sidelines feels better than acting.
#sndk $SNDK