Micron is back down to $950 again—are you brave enough to get on board?
First, look at the surface: earnings are exploding, but the stock is still falling.
Last quarter’s revenue hit $41.46 billion, up 346% year over year, and EPS of $25.11 beat expectations by a wide margin. HBM production capacity is sold out through 2027, and even the White House is helping fend off competitors. So what happens next? It surged to 1,011 yesterday, then slipped back to 950 today. Retail investors can’t make sense of it, but institutions seem to be moving it up and down—cutting the same folks repeatedly.
First thing: Is the pullback because the company has a problem? Think it through.
Micron’s HBM3E/HBM4 are directly tied to NVIDIA’s AI chips. Data centers are scrambling for supply, and orders are already scheduled through 2027. BofA reiterated a Buy with a $1,550 target; New Street raised its rating to Buy with a $1,250 target. Consensus is a strong buy, with an average target around $1,500—more than 50% higher than the current $950.
So why the drop? The only explanation is: it has run too much and needs to shake out weak hands.
Second thing: Macro winds are turning warm, and risk appetite is coming back.
The July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly printed negative, with unemployment at 4.1%—clear signs of a “soft landing.” CPI year over year is 3.4%, mild and manageable. The Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged, and may even cut in 2026.
What does that mean for MU-type high-growth tech stocks? Rising rate-cut expectations mean a lower discount rate, which opens up valuation expansion. In the macro picture, all signs are pointing in a positive direction.
Third thing: The technical picture at this level is very clear.
The 950–960 zone is a support area formed from a prior peak and a dense convergence of the 20- and 50-day moving averages. After stabilizing around 740 at the end of July and rebounding to 1,011, today’s pullback is landing right on key support. RSI has fallen from overbought back to neutral; MACD momentum is cooling but the trend isn’t broken—this is a classic “healthy pullback” structure.
As long as 950 holds, the pullback is a buying opportunity, not a reversal.
Key levels
Resistance overhead: 1000 (psychological level) → 1036 → 1100+ → 1255
Support below: 920–900 (hard stop-loss zone) → 850–800
Trading plan
For futures/options traders:
Lightly try long near 950, stop at 920, target 1000–1050. If there’s a volume-backed breakout above 980, you can chase—stop at 950.
For spot swing traders:
Build positions in batches near 950, add the second tranche around 900. Keep total exposure within 20%. Stop at 880, target 1100–1200.
For long-term believers:
Below 900 is the golden pit of the AI super-cycle. Analysts see $1,500; the more aggressive ones see $1,800+. Buy in 2–3 batches and hold for 1–2 years.
First, look at the surface: earnings are exploding, but the stock is still falling.
Last quarter’s revenue hit $41.46 billion, up 346% year over year, and EPS of $25.11 beat expectations by a wide margin. HBM production capacity is sold out through 2027, and even the White House is helping fend off competitors. So what happens next? It surged to 1,011 yesterday, then slipped back to 950 today. Retail investors can’t make sense of it, but institutions seem to be moving it up and down—cutting the same folks repeatedly.
First thing: Is the pullback because the company has a problem? Think it through.
Micron’s HBM3E/HBM4 are directly tied to NVIDIA’s AI chips. Data centers are scrambling for supply, and orders are already scheduled through 2027. BofA reiterated a Buy with a $1,550 target; New Street raised its rating to Buy with a $1,250 target. Consensus is a strong buy, with an average target around $1,500—more than 50% higher than the current $950.
So why the drop? The only explanation is: it has run too much and needs to shake out weak hands.
Second thing: Macro winds are turning warm, and risk appetite is coming back.
The July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly printed negative, with unemployment at 4.1%—clear signs of a “soft landing.” CPI year over year is 3.4%, mild and manageable. The Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged, and may even cut in 2026.
What does that mean for MU-type high-growth tech stocks? Rising rate-cut expectations mean a lower discount rate, which opens up valuation expansion. In the macro picture, all signs are pointing in a positive direction.
Third thing: The technical picture at this level is very clear.
The 950–960 zone is a support area formed from a prior peak and a dense convergence of the 20- and 50-day moving averages. After stabilizing around 740 at the end of July and rebounding to 1,011, today’s pullback is landing right on key support. RSI has fallen from overbought back to neutral; MACD momentum is cooling but the trend isn’t broken—this is a classic “healthy pullback” structure.
As long as 950 holds, the pullback is a buying opportunity, not a reversal.
Key levels
Resistance overhead: 1000 (psychological level) → 1036 → 1100+ → 1255
Support below: 920–900 (hard stop-loss zone) → 850–800
Trading plan
For futures/options traders:
Lightly try long near 950, stop at 920, target 1000–1050. If there’s a volume-backed breakout above 980, you can chase—stop at 950.
For spot swing traders:
Build positions in batches near 950, add the second tranche around 900. Keep total exposure within 20%. Stop at 880, target 1100–1200.
For long-term believers:
Below 900 is the golden pit of the AI super-cycle. Analysts see $1,500; the more aggressive ones see $1,800+. Buy in 2–3 batches and hold for 1–2 years.