SOL is now hovering around 76u, and it’s been磨ing all day—yet the direction still hasn’t been chosen.
The price looks quite steady: it’s been moving up over the past four hours. After yesterday’s pullback from 74, it’s kept pressing just below 76.5. But the real conflict this round is money. Spot large orders have been net outflow for these three hours—out of 12 candlesticks, not a single one is positive. The futures basis is still negative, and the funding rate is hovering below the zero line. Sentiment is very hot, but the funding won’t offer even a single cent of premium.
The news, however, isn’t bad at all. Data like app revenue, DEX volume, and RWA inflows are all present and impressive. KOL sentiment is revving up quickly, and upgrades like Agave 4.2 are also pushing things forward. The problem is here: with so many positives, the price still hasn’t broken out of the 74–77 range. The 76.5 upper band has been tested twice, and both times it got pushed back.
In plain terms, it’s a fight between narrative and money. There aren’t “no” bulls—over 70% of whale accounts are still net long—but spot large orders are withdrawing. Real cash is waiting for a cheaper level, or waiting for a signal of a breakout with volume.
At this point I’m not chasing longs, and I’m not in a hurry to short either. If above 76.5 it can stand with volume, and spot flows turn positive, then we can talk about opening up room. If 74 breaks, then the retest could come faster than you’d expect. Right now it’s about waiting for funding to choose a side—watch first.
#sol $SOL
The price looks quite steady: it’s been moving up over the past four hours. After yesterday’s pullback from 74, it’s kept pressing just below 76.5. But the real conflict this round is money. Spot large orders have been net outflow for these three hours—out of 12 candlesticks, not a single one is positive. The futures basis is still negative, and the funding rate is hovering below the zero line. Sentiment is very hot, but the funding won’t offer even a single cent of premium.
The news, however, isn’t bad at all. Data like app revenue, DEX volume, and RWA inflows are all present and impressive. KOL sentiment is revving up quickly, and upgrades like Agave 4.2 are also pushing things forward. The problem is here: with so many positives, the price still hasn’t broken out of the 74–77 range. The 76.5 upper band has been tested twice, and both times it got pushed back.
In plain terms, it’s a fight between narrative and money. There aren’t “no” bulls—over 70% of whale accounts are still net long—but spot large orders are withdrawing. Real cash is waiting for a cheaper level, or waiting for a signal of a breakout with volume.
At this point I’m not chasing longs, and I’m not in a hurry to short either. If above 76.5 it can stand with volume, and spot flows turn positive, then we can talk about opening up room. If 74 breaks, then the retest could come faster than you’d expect. Right now it’s about waiting for funding to choose a side—watch first.
#sol $SOL