The Iranian Speaker just issued a call: “Don’t think about reopening if you don’t lift the blockade.” Trump fires back: “Iran should be waving a white flag.” Drones and missiles are flying乱 in the air over the strait, a ship is hit, and COSCO Shipping has already stopped sending oil tankers to transit.
But on the other side, satellites have captured 150 massive vessels assembling in the Gulf of Oman. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are frantically exporting oil— the UAE has already sold 135 million barrels. The U.S. Energy Secretary is still saying the SPR has 300 million barrels.
The spot market hasn’t broken; what’s cut off is sentiment. This doesn’t look like a real blockade—it looks more like a psychological war. Both sides are betting on whose inflation blows up first. Whoever can’t hold out first will give in first and loosen their stance.
So the question is: if Iran says blockade in words but the ports are not actually shut down, can this round of USO risk premium still hold? Tonight, the course of those giant ships in the Gulf of Oman may be more convincing than diplomatic rhetoric.
But on the other side, satellites have captured 150 massive vessels assembling in the Gulf of Oman. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are frantically exporting oil— the UAE has already sold 135 million barrels. The U.S. Energy Secretary is still saying the SPR has 300 million barrels.
The spot market hasn’t broken; what’s cut off is sentiment. This doesn’t look like a real blockade—it looks more like a psychological war. Both sides are betting on whose inflation blows up first. Whoever can’t hold out first will give in first and loosen their stance.
So the question is: if Iran says blockade in words but the ports are not actually shut down, can this round of USO risk premium still hold? Tonight, the course of those giant ships in the Gulf of Oman may be more convincing than diplomatic rhetoric.