The Strait of Hormuz is still the same card, but it’s no longer as effective as it used to be. Can crude oil CL still be done?
First, the conclusion:
In the short term, it’s slightly bullish, but don’t keep fantasizing about $150 oil prices.
Over the recent period, the information Iran has released to the outside world has changed little:
Unfreezing assets, lifting oil sanctions, and reducing military pressure.
The problem is that when the same message is repeated over and over, the market will gradually lose sensitivity.
When a trump card is played repeatedly yet still can’t change the situation, its deterrent power weakens more and more.
The Strait of Hormuz used to be an important bargaining chip.
But now, this card is more like maintaining the status quo rather than changing it.
Why hasn’t the market continued to go into a frenzy over the oil crisis?
The reason is actually very simple.
People have found that although the situation is tense, the probability of a truly comprehensive escalation isn’t high.
Earlier, many people were saying oil prices would surge to $150.
The logic was nothing more than supply disruptions, impeded transportation, and reduced production capacity.
But when looking back now, those expectations haven’t really been fulfilled.
The game between the U.S. and Iran is more like a long-term tug-of-war.
Both sides are applying pressure, but neither is willing to easily push the situation toward losing control.
That’s also why oil prices have stayed in a state of “can’t fall further, and can’t rise further.”
From a trading perspective, CL still has room to move higher.
The area around $84 isn’t the end point.
As long as geopolitical risk hasn’t fully disappeared, oil prices still have a chance to move toward $90.
But above $90, I’d actually become increasingly cautious.
Around $91–$92 is a pressure zone worth focusing on.
If the price continues to push higher, this is a better area to watch for short opportunities.
Remember this:
Geopolitics can drive market sentiment, but it can hardly change the supply-demand relationship for the long term.
What truly determines the long-term direction of crude oil is still supply, demand, and the global economic cycle.
So don’t bet everything on news events.
What the market is best at is using emotion to create volatility.
And what traders should do isn’t to predict who will back down, but to respect changes in the order book.
#以太坊基金会启动Glamsterdam测试网
First, the conclusion:
In the short term, it’s slightly bullish, but don’t keep fantasizing about $150 oil prices.
Over the recent period, the information Iran has released to the outside world has changed little:
Unfreezing assets, lifting oil sanctions, and reducing military pressure.
The problem is that when the same message is repeated over and over, the market will gradually lose sensitivity.
When a trump card is played repeatedly yet still can’t change the situation, its deterrent power weakens more and more.
The Strait of Hormuz used to be an important bargaining chip.
But now, this card is more like maintaining the status quo rather than changing it.
Why hasn’t the market continued to go into a frenzy over the oil crisis?
The reason is actually very simple.
People have found that although the situation is tense, the probability of a truly comprehensive escalation isn’t high.
Earlier, many people were saying oil prices would surge to $150.
The logic was nothing more than supply disruptions, impeded transportation, and reduced production capacity.
But when looking back now, those expectations haven’t really been fulfilled.
The game between the U.S. and Iran is more like a long-term tug-of-war.
Both sides are applying pressure, but neither is willing to easily push the situation toward losing control.
That’s also why oil prices have stayed in a state of “can’t fall further, and can’t rise further.”
From a trading perspective, CL still has room to move higher.
The area around $84 isn’t the end point.
As long as geopolitical risk hasn’t fully disappeared, oil prices still have a chance to move toward $90.
But above $90, I’d actually become increasingly cautious.
Around $91–$92 is a pressure zone worth focusing on.
If the price continues to push higher, this is a better area to watch for short opportunities.
Remember this:
Geopolitics can drive market sentiment, but it can hardly change the supply-demand relationship for the long term.
What truly determines the long-term direction of crude oil is still supply, demand, and the global economic cycle.
So don’t bet everything on news events.
What the market is best at is using emotion to create volatility.
And what traders should do isn’t to predict who will back down, but to respect changes in the order book.
#以太坊基金会启动Glamsterdam测试网