【$TUT After the sudden surge: what game are market makers playing next?】
#行情分析 #TUT # Contract data
On August 9, it surged sixfold in a day—from 0.045 straight up to 0.305. Total spot + futures trading volume in 24 hours exceeded $3 billion. Nine days later, the price has fallen back to around 0.043. From the high of 0.0606, it has retraced nearly 30%. The hype has cooled, but the chess match may only be entering the middle game.
First, take a look at the candlestick structure. On the 1-hour timeframe, MA20 is at 0.0453, and the current price has already fallen below the moving average—short-term trend is weakening. The 4-hour timeframe is more interesting: MA20 is at 0.0376, MA50 at 0.0582, and the price is stuck between the two moving averages. The 20-period high at 0.0606 is the recent ceiling, while the low at 0.0288 is the floor. Right now at 0.043, the price is just slightly above the 4h MA20—this level is crucial: holding it means consolidation as a relay, failing to hold means a pullback to 0.037.
The contract data is even more telling. The funding rate is 0.00500%, close to neutral, so long/short costs are about the same. But the taker buy/sell ratio is only 0.7595—this is very low, meaning active sell volume is clearly higher than active buy volume. The bears are actively driving the dump. However, the large-holder long/short ratio is 1.5712, and the large-holder accounts long/short ratio is 1.4231—large holders are leaning bullish. Retail is running, large holders are holding. This divergence is worth watching.
For open interest, the position size is 341 million units. For a low market-cap coin, that’s not a small number. Coupled with on-chain analyst Yu Jin’s monitoring—160 million TUT (20% of the total supply) flowed from Binance to Bitget. On-chain dynamics are basically limited to market makers moving liquidity back and forth across major exchanges. What does this imply? Liquidity is highly concentrated, and price elasticity depends entirely on the market makers’ intentions.
As for trading volume: the $456M in 24-hour turnover ranks near the top of the whole market, but compared to the $3B surge day on August 9, it has shrunk significantly. Interest has declined, but not fully.
Overall, TUT is currently in the digestion phase after the breakout surge. The price is looking for support around the 4h MA20, and the contract data shows a pattern of "retail shorts vs. large holders longs," with clear market-maker control. In this situation, the key is to watch the 0.037–0.043 range: holding with volume could set up expectations for a second wave; if it breaks down on shrinking volume, then look to the 0.028 previous low.
#行情分析 #TUT # Contract data
On August 9, it surged sixfold in a day—from 0.045 straight up to 0.305. Total spot + futures trading volume in 24 hours exceeded $3 billion. Nine days later, the price has fallen back to around 0.043. From the high of 0.0606, it has retraced nearly 30%. The hype has cooled, but the chess match may only be entering the middle game.
First, take a look at the candlestick structure. On the 1-hour timeframe, MA20 is at 0.0453, and the current price has already fallen below the moving average—short-term trend is weakening. The 4-hour timeframe is more interesting: MA20 is at 0.0376, MA50 at 0.0582, and the price is stuck between the two moving averages. The 20-period high at 0.0606 is the recent ceiling, while the low at 0.0288 is the floor. Right now at 0.043, the price is just slightly above the 4h MA20—this level is crucial: holding it means consolidation as a relay, failing to hold means a pullback to 0.037.
The contract data is even more telling. The funding rate is 0.00500%, close to neutral, so long/short costs are about the same. But the taker buy/sell ratio is only 0.7595—this is very low, meaning active sell volume is clearly higher than active buy volume. The bears are actively driving the dump. However, the large-holder long/short ratio is 1.5712, and the large-holder accounts long/short ratio is 1.4231—large holders are leaning bullish. Retail is running, large holders are holding. This divergence is worth watching.
For open interest, the position size is 341 million units. For a low market-cap coin, that’s not a small number. Coupled with on-chain analyst Yu Jin’s monitoring—160 million TUT (20% of the total supply) flowed from Binance to Bitget. On-chain dynamics are basically limited to market makers moving liquidity back and forth across major exchanges. What does this imply? Liquidity is highly concentrated, and price elasticity depends entirely on the market makers’ intentions.
As for trading volume: the $456M in 24-hour turnover ranks near the top of the whole market, but compared to the $3B surge day on August 9, it has shrunk significantly. Interest has declined, but not fully.
Overall, TUT is currently in the digestion phase after the breakout surge. The price is looking for support around the 4h MA20, and the contract data shows a pattern of "retail shorts vs. large holders longs," with clear market-maker control. In this situation, the key is to watch the 0.037–0.043 range: holding with volume could set up expectations for a second wave; if it breaks down on shrinking volume, then look to the 0.028 previous low.