SanDisk for $1,690—are you buying it?
First, look at the surface: a violent rebound of 70% from below $1,000. Retail investors started chasing the price.
What happened over the past six weeks? The July low probed the $1,000–$1,200 range, then surged all the way to $1,690. It gained 30%+ in 5 days and 30%+ over 1 month. Yesterday the US stock closed at $1,787, up 8.88%—a big jump. The perpetual overnight then pulled back to around $1,690.
After breaking above a descending channel on the daily chart, it accelerated upward. In the medium term, the moving averages are in a bullish alignment, and the MACD momentum continues to improve.
First thing: it rose from 40 to 2,354, then fell back to below 1,000—this is called “washing out,” not a crash
In February 2025, when it split from Western Digital, SNDK’s stock price was only $40. In 15 months, it rose 5,000%+. It topped out at 2,354 in June, then in July the low dipped below 1,000, with a maximum drawdown of over 57%.
A stock that jumps 5,000%—a pullback of 57% is “violent washout,” not a “trend reversal.”
Second thing: Investor Day delivered hard-hitting remarks—Wall Street is collectively bullish
On August 13th’s Investor Day, it laid out a long-term model: high double-digit growth in FY2028–2030 revenue; non-GAAP gross margin maintained around 80%; FCF profit margin around 50%; and 100% of excess cash returned to shareholders.
This company not only can make money—it also returns all the money it makes back to you.
The Q4 earnings were even more explosive: revenue of $8.97 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $39.25, sharply beating expectations, with a surge in data center revenue. The board also authorized an additional $14 billion share buyback.
Third thing: NAND supply is tight—SNDK is no longer a “cycle stock”
The company has signed multi-year new business model (NBM) contracts with multiple mega-scale customers, locking in volume and pricing—covering about half of FY2027 and about two-thirds of FY2028’s bits shipments.
What does that mean? Previously, storage was a cyclical stock—up and down depending on the market and the sky. Now revenue is essentially locked in, and cyclicality is greatly reduced.
Institutions are shifting their view from “cyclical stock” to “AI storage infrastructure.” This is the same storyline as 2023 NVDA, moving from a “gaming GPU company” to a “leader in AI compute.”
Trading strategy
For short-term traders:
Try a small long position near $1,690. Set a stop-loss at $1,620–$1,650. First target $1,750–$1,800. Second target $1,900+. If it breaks above $1,800 on rising volume, you can add.
For swing traders:
Bullish approach—so long as it holds the $1,500–$1,600 zone, hold with an eye toward $2,000+. Build positions in batches: accumulate at $1,650–$1,700 and add on pullbacks. Widen the stop-loss to $1,450–$1,500.
For long-term believers:
Build positions in batches below $1,500. AI storage is one of the most certain infrastructure segments for the next 3–5 years, and SanDisk is the purest pick.
First, look at the surface: a violent rebound of 70% from below $1,000. Retail investors started chasing the price.
What happened over the past six weeks? The July low probed the $1,000–$1,200 range, then surged all the way to $1,690. It gained 30%+ in 5 days and 30%+ over 1 month. Yesterday the US stock closed at $1,787, up 8.88%—a big jump. The perpetual overnight then pulled back to around $1,690.
After breaking above a descending channel on the daily chart, it accelerated upward. In the medium term, the moving averages are in a bullish alignment, and the MACD momentum continues to improve.
First thing: it rose from 40 to 2,354, then fell back to below 1,000—this is called “washing out,” not a crash
In February 2025, when it split from Western Digital, SNDK’s stock price was only $40. In 15 months, it rose 5,000%+. It topped out at 2,354 in June, then in July the low dipped below 1,000, with a maximum drawdown of over 57%.
A stock that jumps 5,000%—a pullback of 57% is “violent washout,” not a “trend reversal.”
Second thing: Investor Day delivered hard-hitting remarks—Wall Street is collectively bullish
On August 13th’s Investor Day, it laid out a long-term model: high double-digit growth in FY2028–2030 revenue; non-GAAP gross margin maintained around 80%; FCF profit margin around 50%; and 100% of excess cash returned to shareholders.
This company not only can make money—it also returns all the money it makes back to you.
The Q4 earnings were even more explosive: revenue of $8.97 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $39.25, sharply beating expectations, with a surge in data center revenue. The board also authorized an additional $14 billion share buyback.
Third thing: NAND supply is tight—SNDK is no longer a “cycle stock”
The company has signed multi-year new business model (NBM) contracts with multiple mega-scale customers, locking in volume and pricing—covering about half of FY2027 and about two-thirds of FY2028’s bits shipments.
What does that mean? Previously, storage was a cyclical stock—up and down depending on the market and the sky. Now revenue is essentially locked in, and cyclicality is greatly reduced.
Institutions are shifting their view from “cyclical stock” to “AI storage infrastructure.” This is the same storyline as 2023 NVDA, moving from a “gaming GPU company” to a “leader in AI compute.”
Trading strategy
For short-term traders:
Try a small long position near $1,690. Set a stop-loss at $1,620–$1,650. First target $1,750–$1,800. Second target $1,900+. If it breaks above $1,800 on rising volume, you can add.
For swing traders:
Bullish approach—so long as it holds the $1,500–$1,600 zone, hold with an eye toward $2,000+. Build positions in batches: accumulate at $1,650–$1,700 and add on pullbacks. Widen the stop-loss to $1,450–$1,500.
For long-term believers:
Build positions in batches below $1,500. AI storage is one of the most certain infrastructure segments for the next 3–5 years, and SanDisk is the purest pick.