Last night I drew a door and came back up, the liquidation intensity is strong, support at 87k below has been established, during the day the hourly line fluctuates near the Vegas band, the long and short game is intense, I estimate a trend is about to emerge, today I was almost defeated by inertia and didn't update, thinking of Teacher Candy@CandyDD Daily encouragement, I won't allow myself to do this haha
Core conclusion
1⃣ Currently, BTC is in a weak structural game period:
2⃣ The short liquidations above are gathering, becoming the market's short-term focus
3⃣ The long liquidations below are still ongoing, but the marginal returns are declining
The core of today's market is not the trend selection, but the game of liquidation order
Current price: ≈ 89,850 – 89,950
One, current structural state
🔻 4H structure
BTC is still in a weak consolidation phase
High points have not yet structurally lifted
Low points have undergone multiple rounds of digestion, but no trend recovery has appeared
The market is still digesting within a weak structure and does not have the conditions to initiate a trend
🔻 1H structure
All rebounds are passive repairs
After the push, multiple pullbacks to the original range
Lack of continuous long positions relay
Current market logic tends to first liquidate who has heavy positions, rather than judging the trend direction
Two, core changes in liquidation structure
🔴 Maximum pain point above (Short Max Pain)
12h: ≈ 90,240 – 90,260
24h: ≈ 90,260
48h: ≈ 91,700 – 91,750
Near 90.2k short cycle height overlap
48h 91.7k is an emotional extreme zone, but today does not need to focus
Short-term 'testing value' is high above, which is the market's primary focus area
🟢 Maximum pain point below (Long Max Pain)
12h: ≈ 88,000 – 88,050
24h: ≈ 86,900 – 87,000
48h: ≈ 87,200
Long liquidation below has been consumed over multiple rounds
Liquidation volume has not synchronized with an increase, marginal returns are declining
There are still stop losses, but they no longer belong to the 'fat meat area'
Three, comprehensive judgment of structure + liquidation
Long liquidation below is still ongoing, but marginal value is decreasing
Short liquidation above is close and dense, not yet triggered
Conclusion: Today's market is more inclined to 'first test the upper liquidation, then decide the subsequent direction', but this does not equate to being bullish.
> Testing above = high liquidation priority
Four, VWAP / EMA technical signals
BTC still fluctuating below/near VWAP
EMA (15min / 1H) is in a twisted state
Core logic:
1. Break through VWAP → Short-term liquidation rebound → Price pullback
2. Stabilize VWAP + 15min pullback does not break → Structural repair initiated
Today's focus is whether the price can break and stabilize above VWAP
Five, today's key structural location (execution level)
🔴 Key area above (main battlefield)
P1: 90,200 – 90,300 (12h / 24h short pain point overlap)
While writing, it has nearly gone up, if it breaks upwards next, look at 90800 and 91700
P2: near 91,700 (48h extreme zone, needs to consider after P1 is completed)
🟢 Key area below
S1: 88,000 – 88,100 (12h long pain point)
S2: 86,900 – 87,000 (24h core long pain point)
> Role of the key area below: observe whether the crash immediately rebounds, otherwise the long logic fails
Six, today's high probability path deduction
⭐ Path One (highest probability | liquidation driven)
U.S. stocks are sideways before the opening → Testing above after U.S. stocks open
Short liquidation above is close and dense, while long marginal value is decreasing
Price fluctuates in the mid to upper range
Path performance: Up to 90.2k → Short liquidation triggered → 90.2k – 90.5k divergence
Observation point: Whether 15min closes above 90.2k, whether the pullback does not break 89.8k, whether VWAP is reclaimed
If it confirms a pullback after liquidation, it looks more like a corrective test
🟡 Path Two (second highest probability | replenishment type)
U.S. stocks are sideways before, not actively pulling up
BTC is stuck below 89.5k, with reduced trading volume
After the U.S. stock market opens, the first wave of bull traps → Down to 88.0k → Complete the remaining long liquidation below
Subsequently enters a fluctuation, still unable to turn into a long trend
⚠️ Path Three (low probability | trend initiation)
Price needs to stabilize at 90.3k
15min pullback does not break
VWAP clearly moves up
Trading volume continues to increase (short positions being liquidated become fuel)
Otherwise, all upward movements are likely false breaks
The most stable is to break and stabilize at 90.8k
That is the 200-day Vegas band of four hours
Seven, focus on watching the market before U.S. stocks open
1️⃣ Is BTC actively approaching 90.2k
2️⃣ Is VWAP a suppression or starting to rise
3️⃣ Is the price oscillating in the middle or being pushed to the upper edge
> Observing these three points can basically determine today's main liquidation direction and path priority.
✅ Today's main research conclusion
BTC is in a weak structural period, with intense long and short battles
Short liquidation gathers above, short-term testing value is high
Long liquidation exists below, but marginal returns are declining
> The key is not to predict long or short first, but to observe the location and extent of liquidation.
⚠️ Risk warning
The above content is only for market structure and liquidation behavior research, not investment advice
Market volatility is rapid, please make independent judgments and bear risks (DYOR)$BTC
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