ETH August 18, 2026 (Tuesday) —— ETF and liquidation data update
Last week, I was temporarily muted for violating regulations for a few days. So I didn’t bother posting. My main focus was on trading U.S. stocks.
1. Review
Because there was no “Clarity Act” market trigger in August, we continue to go long low and short high.
Even though the CPI data came in as expected, and the nonfarm payrolls jobs added less than expected—so rate-hike pressure eased.
Even though Nasdaq futures surged for a few days after the data stimulus, the crypto market didn’t move with it; it kept searching for its bottom on its own.
The BTC bottom recently still seems to be around 62,700. Judging from the liquidation data, it also doesn’t show the downward trend reaching as low as 60,000 or 61,000.
Even if the “Clarity Act” scheduled for September 15 can’t pass the Senate vote, personally I think the market has already digested that information, because the market’s expectation of it passing was never very high.
So maybe it’s because of the midterm elections—if the Republicans suffer a major defeat, then BTC might have a chance to drop to 60,000, or even to the earlier cycle’s low. Of course, it could go even lower. Because in midterm elections, if the Democrats win, that would indeed be a disaster for the crypto market.
2. Targets
BTC long targets remain 65,000; 65,500; 66,000; 67,000.
ETH long targets look at 1,900; 1,932; 1,952; 1,982.
3. BTC ETF data
1. BTC ETF
It turned into net inflows, with a relatively large amount. This has a supportive effect on BTC’s price.
2. ETH ETF
It turned into net inflows, with a moderate amount.
4. Liquidation data
1. BTC liquidations
Short liquidations above: 64,668～65,724
Long liquidations below: 62,748～63,804
2. ETH liquidations
Short liquidations above: 1,909～1,951
Long liquidations below: 1,853～1,884
5. Conclusion and strategy
In fact, our group’s journey to bottom-fish and go long started quite a while ago. Recently, when BTC hit 59,080 for the second time, I predicted that BTC would form a W double bottom—and it’s become even more confirmed that 60,000 is the bottom of this cycle (even though BTC’s main position still went down there once to 57,700 in the middle).
1. The core strategy is: long-term long, to build reserves for the upcoming bull market and accumulate a lot of long-position “chips.”
2. The strategy for the trading group is: as long as the main forces move down to sweep out long stop-losses and liquidations, once the “net” is tightened (i.e., it bottoms out), we buy the bottom and go long.
After the short liquidations above have been completed, we lock in the long positions or take profit.
$BTC $ETH
Last week, I was temporarily muted for violating regulations for a few days. So I didn’t bother posting. My main focus was on trading U.S. stocks.
1. Review
Because there was no “Clarity Act” market trigger in August, we continue to go long low and short high.
Even though the CPI data came in as expected, and the nonfarm payrolls jobs added less than expected—so rate-hike pressure eased.
Even though Nasdaq futures surged for a few days after the data stimulus, the crypto market didn’t move with it; it kept searching for its bottom on its own.
The BTC bottom recently still seems to be around 62,700. Judging from the liquidation data, it also doesn’t show the downward trend reaching as low as 60,000 or 61,000.
Even if the “Clarity Act” scheduled for September 15 can’t pass the Senate vote, personally I think the market has already digested that information, because the market’s expectation of it passing was never very high.
So maybe it’s because of the midterm elections—if the Republicans suffer a major defeat, then BTC might have a chance to drop to 60,000, or even to the earlier cycle’s low. Of course, it could go even lower. Because in midterm elections, if the Democrats win, that would indeed be a disaster for the crypto market.
2. Targets
BTC long targets remain 65,000; 65,500; 66,000; 67,000.
ETH long targets look at 1,900; 1,932; 1,952; 1,982.
3. BTC ETF data
1. BTC ETF
It turned into net inflows, with a relatively large amount. This has a supportive effect on BTC’s price.
2. ETH ETF
It turned into net inflows, with a moderate amount.
4. Liquidation data
1. BTC liquidations
Short liquidations above: 64,668～65,724
Long liquidations below: 62,748～63,804
2. ETH liquidations
Short liquidations above: 1,909～1,951
Long liquidations below: 1,853～1,884
5. Conclusion and strategy
In fact, our group’s journey to bottom-fish and go long started quite a while ago. Recently, when BTC hit 59,080 for the second time, I predicted that BTC would form a W double bottom—and it’s become even more confirmed that 60,000 is the bottom of this cycle (even though BTC’s main position still went down there once to 57,700 in the middle).
1. The core strategy is: long-term long, to build reserves for the upcoming bull market and accumulate a lot of long-position “chips.”
2. The strategy for the trading group is: as long as the main forces move down to sweep out long stop-losses and liquidations, once the “net” is tightened (i.e., it bottoms out), we buy the bottom and go long.
After the short liquidations above have been completed, we lock in the long positions or take profit.
$BTC $ETH