#cme九月加息概率降至30.6%
CME FedWatch latest data shows that the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has fallen to 30.6%, while the probability of maintaining interest rates is up to about 69.4%. This is the direct result of recent weak data continuing to materialize. Previously, the July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turned negative, both CPI and PPI cooled in tandem, and retail sales were also sluggish—together reducing the urgency of further hikes. The market has swiftly shifted from earlier pricing that was close to a 50–50 chance or even higher to a much greater likelihood of a pause. The probability of a rate hike in October has also declined accordingly. However, the disagreement remains. Inside the Fed, some officials still insist that rate hikes are necessary to address sticky inflation—especially the potential disturbances to energy from core services and geopolitical factors. The September meeting will also release updated economic projections and the dot plot; any statement that comes in hotter than expected could cause pricing to swing again. For the market, this reduces near-term tightening pressure and supports risk-asset sentiment. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields face downward pressure, giving gold and the crypto market some room for support. That said, probabilities can change quickly with incoming data, and what ultimately determines the direction is the subsequent jobs numbers, inflation, and remarks from officials. Short-term volatility is unavoidable, so position management should come first.
CME FedWatch latest data shows that the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has fallen to 30.6%, while the probability of maintaining interest rates is up to about 69.4%. This is the direct result of recent weak data continuing to materialize. Previously, the July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turned negative, both CPI and PPI cooled in tandem, and retail sales were also sluggish—together reducing the urgency of further hikes. The market has swiftly shifted from earlier pricing that was close to a 50–50 chance or even higher to a much greater likelihood of a pause. The probability of a rate hike in October has also declined accordingly. However, the disagreement remains. Inside the Fed, some officials still insist that rate hikes are necessary to address sticky inflation—especially the potential disturbances to energy from core services and geopolitical factors. The September meeting will also release updated economic projections and the dot plot; any statement that comes in hotter than expected could cause pricing to swing again. For the market, this reduces near-term tightening pressure and supports risk-asset sentiment. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields face downward pressure, giving gold and the crypto market some room for support. That said, probabilities can change quickly with incoming data, and what ultimately determines the direction is the subsequent jobs numbers, inflation, and remarks from officials. Short-term volatility is unavoidable, so position management should come first.