$BTC
$MSFT climbs to the top with an AI narrative, but what the market is pricing in is not Microsoft itself—rather, the fragility of the entire AI capex cycle. Anthropic’s quarterly revenue of $1.15 billion looks impressive on the surface, but it’s the final straw that breaks the valuation of software stocks—GitLab and Elastic’s steep drops show that capital is voting with its feet, refusing to buy the “more AI revenue, but not more profit” story.
On the macro front, rate-cut expectations from the Fed are being repeatedly dialed back. The U.S. Dollar Index is trading at high levels with choppy action, and liquidity at the margin is tightening. Institutional capital is moving out of overvalued tech stocks and into defensive assets, and the divergence between the Nasdaq and the S&P is widening. Geopolitical risks push oil prices higher, while sticky inflation keeps the benchmark scenario at “higher for longer” rates—fatal for long-duration assets.
The transmission path is clear: a localized crack in the U.S. AI bubble → risk appetite contracts → BTC, as a high-beta asset, takes the first hit → then ETH and other altcoins split violently as liquidity is drained. In the short term, BTC may dip toward prior support levels; but if the Fed releases dovish signals due to economic slowdown and the dollar falls, it will trigger a retaliatory rebound in the crypto market.
My take: volatility will rise significantly over the next two weeks, and BTC may find a bottom ahead of the U.S. stock market. Funds will rotate from purely speculative altcoins toward L1s with real revenue and the AI + Depin tracks. $NVDAB
Do you think this AI pullback will replay the 2022 crypto winter, or is it just a mid-game pause in a bull market? See you in the comments.
$MSFT climbs to the top with an AI narrative, but what the market is pricing in is not Microsoft itself—rather, the fragility of the entire AI capex cycle. Anthropic’s quarterly revenue of $1.15 billion looks impressive on the surface, but it’s the final straw that breaks the valuation of software stocks—GitLab and Elastic’s steep drops show that capital is voting with its feet, refusing to buy the “more AI revenue, but not more profit” story.
On the macro front, rate-cut expectations from the Fed are being repeatedly dialed back. The U.S. Dollar Index is trading at high levels with choppy action, and liquidity at the margin is tightening. Institutional capital is moving out of overvalued tech stocks and into defensive assets, and the divergence between the Nasdaq and the S&P is widening. Geopolitical risks push oil prices higher, while sticky inflation keeps the benchmark scenario at “higher for longer” rates—fatal for long-duration assets.
The transmission path is clear: a localized crack in the U.S. AI bubble → risk appetite contracts → BTC, as a high-beta asset, takes the first hit → then ETH and other altcoins split violently as liquidity is drained. In the short term, BTC may dip toward prior support levels; but if the Fed releases dovish signals due to economic slowdown and the dollar falls, it will trigger a retaliatory rebound in the crypto market.
My take: volatility will rise significantly over the next two weeks, and BTC may find a bottom ahead of the U.S. stock market. Funds will rotate from purely speculative altcoins toward L1s with real revenue and the AI + Depin tracks. $NVDAB
Do you think this AI pullback will replay the 2022 crypto winter, or is it just a mid-game pause in a bull market? See you in the comments.