September rate-hike probability falls to 30.6%, and expectations for tightening cool off significantly.
How to interpret this? It depends on the reason 👇
🔹 If it’s because inflation is easing → risk assets benefit ✅
🔹 If it’s because the economy is weakening → risk-off sentiment rises ⚠️
Market impact:
📌 US Treasury yields face pressure, and the dollar stays soft 💵
📌 Equity valuation pressure eases, but earnings expectations may be revised down
📌 Gold may benefit from falling real yields 🥇
For crypto:
A decline in rate expectations is good for BTC/ETH valuations 💧
But if a “recession trade” dominates, crypto may not be able to escape the fallout ⚡
Strategy:
Don’t bet one-sided on rate cuts or a recession—watch subsequent CPI and NFP data for confirmation 📊
In the short term, you can look for a rebound in risk assets; in the medium term, still be wary of data surprises 🛡️
$BTC #CME九月加息概率降至30.6%
How to interpret this? It depends on the reason 👇
🔹 If it’s because inflation is easing → risk assets benefit ✅
🔹 If it’s because the economy is weakening → risk-off sentiment rises ⚠️
Market impact:
📌 US Treasury yields face pressure, and the dollar stays soft 💵
📌 Equity valuation pressure eases, but earnings expectations may be revised down
📌 Gold may benefit from falling real yields 🥇
For crypto:
A decline in rate expectations is good for BTC/ETH valuations 💧
But if a “recession trade” dominates, crypto may not be able to escape the fallout ⚡
Strategy:
Don’t bet one-sided on rate cuts or a recession—watch subsequent CPI and NFP data for confirmation 📊
In the short term, you can look for a rebound in risk assets; in the medium term, still be wary of data surprises 🛡️
$BTC #CME九月加息概率降至30.6%