According to classic theory: DXY Decline = BTC Rise. But looking at today’s chart, we will see a completely different story.

DXY is gasping for oxygen but $BTC remains indifferent as if nothing is happening.

🔷 Looking at the DXY chart on the 4H and 1D frames, the Bull side of USD has completely collapsed:

  • DXY has officially broken a very important support structure, falling straight down from the 98.x region to a low of 95.78.

  • The red Marubozu candles show extreme selling pressure due to concerns about the latest policies.

The capital is fleeing from cash. Typically, this money should flow directly into BTC.

🔶 On this side, completely opposite to the decline of DXY, BTC has a reaction that can be described as very bland:

  • Instead of forming a green column, BTC is moving sideways around the $89,084 region, even slightly decreasing in today’s session.

  • BTC has just lost the MA25 mark and is testing the lower support area. The drop to $86k earlier is still haunting investors' psychology.

With the Heatmap showing that in recent days BTC has fluctuated between green and red with extremely small margins, reflecting extreme indecision.

🔷 Surely the biggest question everyone is thinking right now: Why is DXY dropping while BTC is not rising?

  • While DXY is collapsing due to concerns about recession and politics, capital is prioritizing Gold $XAU . Breaking the $5,310 peak as a safe haven instead of risky assets like BTC.

  • The Fear & Greed index is at 29 (Fear). Retail investors are fearful and hesitant to enter trades even though DXY is good.

Currently, the sharks are holding cash waiting for the Fed meeting tonight and the liquidity injection of 8.3 billion USD tomorrow.

🔶 The divergence at this moment is precisely a bullish gap. When market sentiment stabilizes, BTC must run to reflect the depreciation of USD.

🔷 With the range of $88k - $89k currently being well maintained. If the Fed is not too hawkish tonight, this is a launchpad for BTC to rebound to the $95k mark and possibly higher to 100K.

🔶 But if DXY has a strong technical recovery from the bottom of 95.8, BTC may face short-term downward pressure. But the long-term trend of DXY breaking is very good news for Crypto in the 2026 season.

DXY is rolling out the red carpet but BTC is still hesitant to step up. Be patient, when the money from Gold takes profits, it will turn to Bitcoin!

This article is for reference only, not investment advice. Please read and consider carefully before making a decision.