SNXX is currently 19.64u; just one step away from the 24-hour high of 19.89. This whole move has really not left shorts any face.
There’s nothing much to overthink on the trend: among the six 4-hour candles, four are bullish; over the past 24 hours it’s up nearly 19%. Price has pulled away from MA20 and MA50 by several positions and is still moving higher. The earlier bullish view near 16.5 was fine—the issue is this current level.
Here’s the problem: in the spot order book, the top 20 levels show buy orders at only slightly more than 70% of the sell orders; the sell orders stacked above are about one “layer” thicker than the bids supporting from below. For the futures market, the proportion of active buying has fallen below 50% and is still dropping. Yes, it’s up—but incremental new capital chasing higher is weakening. And this product is a 2x leveraged ETF-type product: when it rises, it’s fierce; when it retraces, it’s equally brutal.
The funding rate is still negative. After 8 samples, it turns positive only once, and the basis (trading at a discount) is on the bulls’ side—so as long as price can hold up, shorts are basically ready-made fuel. Even the whales aren’t consistent: by account, the long share is below 40% and still decreasing; by position, it’s still net long, and the position-count metric is still adding.
So my bias is bullish, but at this level I won’t chase. A leveraged product that’s up nearly 20%, with sell orders heavier than bids and active buying weakening—pushing it here has mediocre risk-reward. Wait for a pullback, and see whether someone takes it; that will be much more comfortable than chasing right now.
#snxx $SNXX
There’s nothing much to overthink on the trend: among the six 4-hour candles, four are bullish; over the past 24 hours it’s up nearly 19%. Price has pulled away from MA20 and MA50 by several positions and is still moving higher. The earlier bullish view near 16.5 was fine—the issue is this current level.
Here’s the problem: in the spot order book, the top 20 levels show buy orders at only slightly more than 70% of the sell orders; the sell orders stacked above are about one “layer” thicker than the bids supporting from below. For the futures market, the proportion of active buying has fallen below 50% and is still dropping. Yes, it’s up—but incremental new capital chasing higher is weakening. And this product is a 2x leveraged ETF-type product: when it rises, it’s fierce; when it retraces, it’s equally brutal.
The funding rate is still negative. After 8 samples, it turns positive only once, and the basis (trading at a discount) is on the bulls’ side—so as long as price can hold up, shorts are basically ready-made fuel. Even the whales aren’t consistent: by account, the long share is below 40% and still decreasing; by position, it’s still net long, and the position-count metric is still adding.
So my bias is bullish, but at this level I won’t chase. A leveraged product that’s up nearly 20%, with sell orders heavier than bids and active buying weakening—pushing it here has mediocre risk-reward. Wait for a pullback, and see whether someone takes it; that will be much more comfortable than chasing right now.
#snxx $SNXX