Encryption | Tomorrow’s Prediction | August 18
Watching BTC bounce back from 62,800 to 63,900, I actually can’t sleep tonight— the better the rebound looks, the more I feel like reducing my position.
First, let’s talk about the chart. That early-morning spike at 62,680—I thought we were about to break below 60k. Instead, it was pulled back hard, and the intraday price action still printed a 1.3% gain. Honestly, this kind of V-shaped reversal is pretty common in a bear market, but the probability of “the rebound is not the bottom” is often higher—the real bottom is usually a sideways grind, not a sudden surge.
But I’m not purely short either. There are three reasons:
First, 62,680 is a prior low with a dense concentration of traded volume. The main funds have picked up too much there—if they smash it again, the cost will be extremely high.
Second, BNB is only down 0.14% today, and it can’t seem to drop through the 606 level no matter what—this suggests the mainstream funds aren’t panic-selling and escaping.
Third, the 24-hour trading activity hasn’t dropped; if anything, volume is increasing at the lows—someone is quietly accumulating.
Key levels—let me mark them:
Below 62680-63000 under $BTC is tomorrow’s line between life and death. If 63,000 breaks, it may test 61,500 next. Overhead, the 64,000 psychological level is a whole-number resistance zone—once it breaks, look for 64,800-65,000.
Today, $ETH 1868 held, but 1,910 repeatedly surged yet couldn’t break through. Tomorrow, if it holds above 1,910, the next target is 1,980; if it can’t hold, expect a pullback to 1,880.
$SOL 74-76 has been moving sideways for three days—neither bulls nor bears have much strength. 75 is my own psychological level; if it breaks 74.5, I’ll reduce.
Directions to focus on:
1. The 1,900 battle around $ETH . The ETH/BTC ratio has been weak—ETH needs to step up to drive sentiment, otherwise $BTC can’t stand on its own.
2. On the STEALTH榜, FLOCKUSDT has a volume spike of 38.8x—an abnormal signal. But its market cap is only a few million. New coin + abnormal volume usually means either a pump or distribution. I won’t touch it, but I’ll observe whether there’s real buy-side demand on-chain.
3. The slow-rising board: LINK and BULLA have been trending higher for multiple days with extremely small pullbacks (LINK’s maximum drawdown is only 1.4%). This looks like an institutional-style accumulation. Once LINK holds above 9.5, there’s a chance of a follow-up rally to 10.5.
4. The new-coin scan: BTWUSDT has been at the top of the list for a full week, rebounding 2.6x from the low. Either the market maker is pumping, or there’s real narrative support. I lean toward the latter because trading volume has continued to provide backing.
Event reminder:
Tomorrow has no major macro events, but on Tuesday institutional activity usually increases, so market volatility will be higher than Monday. Also, this week’s SUI ETF news is still unfolding—price action could react to the headlines at any time. Watch more, trade less.
My strategy:
- Keep existing long positions as long as $BTC 62800-63000 doesn’t break; if it breaks, cut by half
- Don’t chase pumps—wait for pullbacks and confirmation before adding
- Altcoins only trade when there’s on-chain data support; don’t chase the top of the gainers list
- Total position size: 50%, keep some “ammo”
Finally, a candid truth: if tomorrow rises toward 64,000 but can’t hold, there’s a good chance it will retreat back to 62,000 and grind the bottom again. I picked up some at 62,800 a couple of days ago, but tonight’s bullish candle actually makes me want to reduce a bit—not because I’m bearish, but because in a bear market, a sudden spike often gives an opportunity.
For these predictions, getting it right 3 out of 1 is already pretty good. Tomorrow’s market may also slap me in the face—so it’s important that my strategy still leaves room.
What do you think—can $BTC hold steady at 64k tomorrow?
A. Yes, 65,000 tomorrow
B. No, pull back to 62k tomorrow
Vote in the comments—if you have a different opinion, say it directly~
Watching BTC bounce back from 62,800 to 63,900, I actually can’t sleep tonight— the better the rebound looks, the more I feel like reducing my position.
First, let’s talk about the chart. That early-morning spike at 62,680—I thought we were about to break below 60k. Instead, it was pulled back hard, and the intraday price action still printed a 1.3% gain. Honestly, this kind of V-shaped reversal is pretty common in a bear market, but the probability of “the rebound is not the bottom” is often higher—the real bottom is usually a sideways grind, not a sudden surge.
But I’m not purely short either. There are three reasons:
First, 62,680 is a prior low with a dense concentration of traded volume. The main funds have picked up too much there—if they smash it again, the cost will be extremely high.
Second, BNB is only down 0.14% today, and it can’t seem to drop through the 606 level no matter what—this suggests the mainstream funds aren’t panic-selling and escaping.
Third, the 24-hour trading activity hasn’t dropped; if anything, volume is increasing at the lows—someone is quietly accumulating.
Key levels—let me mark them:
Below 62680-63000 under $BTC is tomorrow’s line between life and death. If 63,000 breaks, it may test 61,500 next. Overhead, the 64,000 psychological level is a whole-number resistance zone—once it breaks, look for 64,800-65,000.
Today, $ETH 1868 held, but 1,910 repeatedly surged yet couldn’t break through. Tomorrow, if it holds above 1,910, the next target is 1,980; if it can’t hold, expect a pullback to 1,880.
$SOL 74-76 has been moving sideways for three days—neither bulls nor bears have much strength. 75 is my own psychological level; if it breaks 74.5, I’ll reduce.
Directions to focus on:
1. The 1,900 battle around $ETH . The ETH/BTC ratio has been weak—ETH needs to step up to drive sentiment, otherwise $BTC can’t stand on its own.
2. On the STEALTH榜, FLOCKUSDT has a volume spike of 38.8x—an abnormal signal. But its market cap is only a few million. New coin + abnormal volume usually means either a pump or distribution. I won’t touch it, but I’ll observe whether there’s real buy-side demand on-chain.
3. The slow-rising board: LINK and BULLA have been trending higher for multiple days with extremely small pullbacks (LINK’s maximum drawdown is only 1.4%). This looks like an institutional-style accumulation. Once LINK holds above 9.5, there’s a chance of a follow-up rally to 10.5.
4. The new-coin scan: BTWUSDT has been at the top of the list for a full week, rebounding 2.6x from the low. Either the market maker is pumping, or there’s real narrative support. I lean toward the latter because trading volume has continued to provide backing.
Event reminder:
Tomorrow has no major macro events, but on Tuesday institutional activity usually increases, so market volatility will be higher than Monday. Also, this week’s SUI ETF news is still unfolding—price action could react to the headlines at any time. Watch more, trade less.
My strategy:
- Keep existing long positions as long as $BTC 62800-63000 doesn’t break; if it breaks, cut by half
- Don’t chase pumps—wait for pullbacks and confirmation before adding
- Altcoins only trade when there’s on-chain data support; don’t chase the top of the gainers list
- Total position size: 50%, keep some “ammo”
Finally, a candid truth: if tomorrow rises toward 64,000 but can’t hold, there’s a good chance it will retreat back to 62,000 and grind the bottom again. I picked up some at 62,800 a couple of days ago, but tonight’s bullish candle actually makes me want to reduce a bit—not because I’m bearish, but because in a bear market, a sudden spike often gives an opportunity.
For these predictions, getting it right 3 out of 1 is already pretty good. Tomorrow’s market may also slap me in the face—so it’s important that my strategy still leaves room.
What do you think—can $BTC hold steady at 64k tomorrow?
A. Yes, 65,000 tomorrow
B. No, pull back to 62k tomorrow
Vote in the comments—if you have a different opinion, say it directly~