The thesis that the market will rise purely on optimism before the White House meeting is risky, as the chances of approval for the CLARITY Law have fallen drastically, creating strong indecision in prices. Although the August 19 top-level meeting with Donald Trump, Ripple, Coinbase, the SEC, and the CFTC brings major media appeal, the sentiment of large investors is far from blind optimism due to serious political deadlocks.
⚠️ The “Cold Bucket of Water” on the CLARITY Law
Although the bill advanced in the Banking Committee in May, the current scenario has changed:
Chances in free fall: The prediction market (like Polymarket) and major analysts such as Galaxy Digital estimate that the probability of project approval in 2026 dropped from 82% to just 10% by 19%.
Vote postponed: The U.S. Senate entered recess without voting on the text. The procedural vote (cloture) was pushed to September 15, leaving a very short legislative window of three weeks before the midterm campaigns.
Ethical and banking impasses: Democratic senators require that Trump divest his personal crypto businesses (such as World Liberty Financial) before voting. In addition, traditional banks are strongly lobbying against the project, fearing they will lose deposits to interest-bearing stablecoins.
🔎 What to Expect from the August 19 Meeting?
The event at the White House, followed by the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee meeting on August 20, serves precisely as an emergency move by Trump to try to unblock the project.
Who will be there: Ripple and Coinbase executives, Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), as well as the SEC chair (Paul Atkins) and the CFTC chair (Michael Selig).
The danger of “Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact”: It’s very common in the crypto market for prices to rise on expectations of a major regulatory event and then suffer sharp corrections (dumps) right after it takes place if concrete measures are not announced immediately.
⚠️ The “Cold Bucket of Water” on the CLARITY Law
Although the bill advanced in the Banking Committee in May, the current scenario has changed:
Chances in free fall: The prediction market (like Polymarket) and major analysts such as Galaxy Digital estimate that the probability of project approval in 2026 dropped from 82% to just 10% by 19%.
Vote postponed: The U.S. Senate entered recess without voting on the text. The procedural vote (cloture) was pushed to September 15, leaving a very short legislative window of three weeks before the midterm campaigns.
Ethical and banking impasses: Democratic senators require that Trump divest his personal crypto businesses (such as World Liberty Financial) before voting. In addition, traditional banks are strongly lobbying against the project, fearing they will lose deposits to interest-bearing stablecoins.
🔎 What to Expect from the August 19 Meeting?
The event at the White House, followed by the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee meeting on August 20, serves precisely as an emergency move by Trump to try to unblock the project.
Who will be there: Ripple and Coinbase executives, Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), as well as the SEC chair (Paul Atkins) and the CFTC chair (Michael Selig).
The danger of “Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact”: It’s very common in the crypto market for prices to rise on expectations of a major regulatory event and then suffer sharp corrections (dumps) right after it takes place if concrete measures are not announced immediately.