Lucid lecture. The classic trap is to confuse flow and timing. M2 is not an LTF entry signal but an HTF framework. The liquidity that arrives at the end of the cycle is mainly used for distribution. When M2 peaks, the market has already turned. The HTF remains the final arbiter.
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Bluechip
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Funny how everyone ditched M2 because they were staring at it on the LTF.
I called this at 120K. When a macro top is forming, do you really think the stars are going to line up perfectly for a short? They won’t. Delayed correlations exist specifically to mess up your timing.
M2 works, you just used it incorrectly. As we approach a macro top, there’s a fresh influx of liquidity. Everyone thinks, “OMG, money entering markets, price goes up.”
Wrong. That’s exit liquidity.
In every cycle, $BTC has topped before M2. By the time M2 actually peaks, BTC is already down 30–40% based on prior cycles.
That’s exactly what happened this cycle. I pointed it out well before the drop, which is why I was already scaling into shorts. When M2 finally starts cooling, you get an acceleration of the downtrend,just like every other cycle from a macro point of interest.
The HTF is king. Yes, cycles will eventually decouple, but it won’t be this time.
I called this at 120K. When a macro top is forming, do you really think the stars are going to line up perfectly for a short? They won’t. Delayed correlations exist specifically to mess up your timing.
M2 works, you just used it incorrectly. As we approach a macro top, there’s a fresh influx of liquidity. Everyone thinks, “OMG, money entering markets, price goes up.”
Wrong. That’s exit liquidity.
In every cycle, $BTC has topped before M2. By the time M2 actually peaks, BTC is already down 30–40% based on prior cycles.
That’s exactly what happened this cycle. I pointed it out well before the drop, which is why I was already scaling into shorts. When M2 finally starts cooling, you get an acceleration of the downtrend,just like every other cycle from a macro point of interest.
The HTF is king. Yes, cycles will eventually decouple, but it won’t be this time.
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