CL is currently around 81.1u. I just pulled back from the 82.2 peak, and the price is staying below the 20/50 moving averages. I’m not in a hurry to chase longs from this position.
First, let’s look at the order book. The depth of sell orders is nearly three times that of buy orders. On top, the sell walls are thick and neatly stacked. With a market like this, every step upward requires pushing through a fairly heavy amount of overhead selling pressure.
The futures side is a bit tangled. In the last seven hours, trading volume suddenly surged to more than double. The aggressive buy side makes up nearly 60%, which looks like some capital is sweeping. But the price still can’t be pushed up, and it even pulls back from the high. When buyers are working so hard but still can’t move it, it suggests the pressure overhead is heavier than expected.
The data from large accounts is also worth noting. At the account level, it’s clearly tilted long, but on the actual positioned exposure, the longs are still less than half, with heavier bids pressed on the short side. Accounts that talk about being bullish don’t line up with the direction of the orders they place.
The good news is that the funding rate is still near the zero line, with no sign of overcrowded longs. The 4-hour chart is also moving sideways and hasn’t truly broken down. So this isn’t a short opportunity—it’s a breakout being suppressed.
My stance: chasing longs here isn’t great on risk-reward. There are sell walls overhead, and shorts are also pressing on the positioning side. Let’s see whether the price can move back above the short-term moving averages and eat through the sell walls. If it can’t, then keep waiting—don’t rush to increase positions.
#cl $CL
First, let’s look at the order book. The depth of sell orders is nearly three times that of buy orders. On top, the sell walls are thick and neatly stacked. With a market like this, every step upward requires pushing through a fairly heavy amount of overhead selling pressure.
The futures side is a bit tangled. In the last seven hours, trading volume suddenly surged to more than double. The aggressive buy side makes up nearly 60%, which looks like some capital is sweeping. But the price still can’t be pushed up, and it even pulls back from the high. When buyers are working so hard but still can’t move it, it suggests the pressure overhead is heavier than expected.
The data from large accounts is also worth noting. At the account level, it’s clearly tilted long, but on the actual positioned exposure, the longs are still less than half, with heavier bids pressed on the short side. Accounts that talk about being bullish don’t line up with the direction of the orders they place.
The good news is that the funding rate is still near the zero line, with no sign of overcrowded longs. The 4-hour chart is also moving sideways and hasn’t truly broken down. So this isn’t a short opportunity—it’s a breakout being suppressed.
My stance: chasing longs here isn’t great on risk-reward. There are sell walls overhead, and shorts are also pressing on the positioning side. Let’s see whether the price can move back above the short-term moving averages and eat through the sell walls. If it can’t, then keep waiting—don’t rush to increase positions.
#cl $CL