First, let’s talk about the chart: ETH has finally reclaimed the level of 1900.
After a weekend, the market is still giving some signals.
ETH rebounded from the low point near 1868 last week. It is currently trading above $1899. The intraday gain is about 0.88%, and the highest point during the session reached $1908.
BTC is currently consolidating in the $62,000–$63,000 range. The overall structure is still somewhat weak, but it hasn’t continued to sell off—so that’s a stabilizing sign.
One weekend detail worth paying attention to: near 1868, ETH showed clear buy support. This is not the kind of volume retail investors can hold up—meaning that in the 1850–1870 range, there really was capital stepping in to pick up the dip.
2. On the news front: the rate-hike probability has dropped again, and Goldman has also spoken up
CME’s latest data on its “Fed Watch”: The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September is 66.9%, while the probability of a 25 bps rate hike is only 33.1%.
On August 16, Goldman’s chief economist Harker also stated clearly: the likelihood of a September rate hike by the Fed has “become very low.” There are three reasons: cooling consumption, the labor market is nearly stalled, and inflation continues to improve.
Watch one detail: the word Goldman used is “very low.” This is no longer “it may not hike,” but “it is basically unlikely to hike.”
Goldman Sachs also believes that there is still room for downward adjustment in the market’s pricing of the Fed’s hawkish rates. This will support further gains in US stocks before year-end. If US stocks hold up, BTC and ETH will at least not look too bad.
3. However, I want to say three “buts”
But①: a drop in the rate-hike probability ≠ rate cuts are coming
The probability of a rate hike falling from 33% to 66.9% and staying put as-is is definitely a good development. But this is only “no rate hike,” not “rate cuts.” Interest rates remain high, and liquidity is still tight. Not hiking rates can only keep the market from getting “worse,” but it can’t make the market “better.”
But②: the “value/importance” of 1,900 isn’t enough
ETH rebounded from 1,868 to 1,900, but trading volume hasn’t clearly increased. A low-volume rebound suggests the buying pressure isn’t strong enough. If price keeps consolidating around 1,900 on low volume for long, it will eventually be smashed down.
But③: the weekend liquidity trap
The liquidity for cryptocurrencies on the weekend is only about 84% of weekdays, and the average bid-ask spread widens by 11%. This means weekend price moves may just be “distortion caused by insufficient liquidity,” not a true market trend. After US stocks open on Monday, that’s when the real test begins.
4. Several key levels to watch this week
ETH structure summary:
Hold above $1,900 → the recovery structure continues, target $1,950–$2,000
Break below $1,850 → the structure weakens, target $1,800–$1,750
Also note: There have been reports of a fairly large-scale options expiration this week. BTC’s biggest pain point is around $64,000, and ETH is close to $1,900. After options expire, how the market reacts may reveal the direction more than the expiration itself.
5. The thinking for this week
Don’t chase price near $1,900. Wait for a low-volume breakout and then confirm on a pullback before acting
$1,850 is the first observation zone: only when a pullback to here stabilizes is it a relatively comfortable spot to try a starter position
Watch ETF fund flows: Recently, ETH ETFs have had net inflows for five consecutive weeks, totaling about $244.9 million. If it can continue, that’s a real institutional signal
Say it again after US stocks open on Monday: the signals over the weekend don’t have much “weight”—wait for Wall Street to get to work
Final line: the rebound over the weekend is “catching your breath,” not “turning around.” For ETH to truly flip bullish, it needs to stand above 1,950 on increased volume. Before that, the senior’s choice is—watch more, move less.
A new week—wishing everyone to watch the market calmly and trade without getting flustered. 🚀
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Note: This article only shares trading psychology and strategy thinking and does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky; enter the market with caution. If you’d like to learn together, feel free to come find me!
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