By the way, it’s around 0.38u now. Today I just stepped on the previous historical high at 0.41, and the top reached 0.44. Now it has pulled back to this level. First, the conclusion: the trend hasn’t broken, but I won’t chase here—I’ll wait for the pullback to confirm.
Let me make it clear: this move is genuinely fierce. On the 4-hour chart, six K-lines with five bullish candles overriding one bearish candle; on the daily chart, one big bullish candle sets the tone; over the course of the week, it’s risen more than 70%. The big players haven’t bailed either—positions are still over 60% long, and the long/short ratio is above 1.6 and still being pushed higher. On the spot order book, the buy-side depth is more than three times thicker than the sell-side depth; at lower levels, people are lining up to take it.
The issue is on the leverage side. Within a single day, open interest has surged by 40%. The fee rate is eight sampling points, all positive, and 0.138% is still climbing—this push to make new highs is mainly being driven by leveraged funds. The longs are already getting a bit crowded. The spot large-order “ledger” is still empty; I haven’t seen obvious real-money entries.
Price has fallen from the 0.44 peak back to 0.38—more than a dozen points gone, and the 15-minute moving average has also been broken. With leverage stacked high, pullbacks will be amplified in volatility. Chasing longs now is like standing next to the last batch trying to board—the cost-effectiveness isn’t great.
My plan: slightly bullish in direction, but I’ll first watch the pullback. If the earlier long lower-wick candle at 0.35–0.37 can hold, then I’ll consider getting on board; if it can’t hold, I’ll keep waiting. Chasing the top—that job is for other people.
#btw $BTW
Let me make it clear: this move is genuinely fierce. On the 4-hour chart, six K-lines with five bullish candles overriding one bearish candle; on the daily chart, one big bullish candle sets the tone; over the course of the week, it’s risen more than 70%. The big players haven’t bailed either—positions are still over 60% long, and the long/short ratio is above 1.6 and still being pushed higher. On the spot order book, the buy-side depth is more than three times thicker than the sell-side depth; at lower levels, people are lining up to take it.
The issue is on the leverage side. Within a single day, open interest has surged by 40%. The fee rate is eight sampling points, all positive, and 0.138% is still climbing—this push to make new highs is mainly being driven by leveraged funds. The longs are already getting a bit crowded. The spot large-order “ledger” is still empty; I haven’t seen obvious real-money entries.
Price has fallen from the 0.44 peak back to 0.38—more than a dozen points gone, and the 15-minute moving average has also been broken. With leverage stacked high, pullbacks will be amplified in volatility. Chasing longs now is like standing next to the last batch trying to board—the cost-effectiveness isn’t great.
My plan: slightly bullish in direction, but I’ll first watch the pullback. If the earlier long lower-wick candle at 0.35–0.37 can hold, then I’ll consider getting on board; if it can’t hold, I’ll keep waiting. Chasing the top—that job is for other people.
#btw $BTW