SOXL is now around 148.7, hitting the 24-hour high of 148.8 and then slipping just below it.
In the previous post, I said this area is a bit overbought and to wait for a pullback—and the pullback really came. It touched 144.2, didn’t break it, then rallied back more than three points from the low. Price has now regained the 15-minute double moving averages, and both the 4-hour and daily directions are still marked UP. The structure hasn’t broken—I’ll admit that.
But the derivatives side’s aggressive trading doesn’t line up with the price. The buy/sell ratio based on aggressive buys and sells is only 0.62—meaning about 60% of the orders flowing out are sells, and aggressive buys make up just 38%. As price grinds higher, it’s basically being pushed by spot supply; there aren’t many people in the futures actually chasing longs with real money.
Open interest also matches the picture: over the past 7 hours, OI shrank by more than two points. When price rose, OI didn’t. And in all eight sampled reads, the funding rate returned to zero—suggesting the longs are neither crowded nor adding.
In the order book (20 levels), buy and sell limits are almost 1:1, and I didn’t see any big iceberg-like buy orders holding up the move.
To put it plainly: price is pressing against the upper edge of the range, but the incoming capital hasn’t committed yet. Above 148.8 is the first hurdle—only a clear break counts as a breakout. If it falls back to around 146, there is support.
One-sentence takeaway: I won’t deny the trend is leaning bullish, but chasing at these highs has mediocre risk/reward. Either wait for a real breakout with volume that truly pushes through 148.8, or wait for a pullback into 146–147 that doesn’t break, and then enter—you’ll be more comfortable than chasing right now.
#soxl $SOXL
In the previous post, I said this area is a bit overbought and to wait for a pullback—and the pullback really came. It touched 144.2, didn’t break it, then rallied back more than three points from the low. Price has now regained the 15-minute double moving averages, and both the 4-hour and daily directions are still marked UP. The structure hasn’t broken—I’ll admit that.
But the derivatives side’s aggressive trading doesn’t line up with the price. The buy/sell ratio based on aggressive buys and sells is only 0.62—meaning about 60% of the orders flowing out are sells, and aggressive buys make up just 38%. As price grinds higher, it’s basically being pushed by spot supply; there aren’t many people in the futures actually chasing longs with real money.
Open interest also matches the picture: over the past 7 hours, OI shrank by more than two points. When price rose, OI didn’t. And in all eight sampled reads, the funding rate returned to zero—suggesting the longs are neither crowded nor adding.
In the order book (20 levels), buy and sell limits are almost 1:1, and I didn’t see any big iceberg-like buy orders holding up the move.
To put it plainly: price is pressing against the upper edge of the range, but the incoming capital hasn’t committed yet. Above 148.8 is the first hurdle—only a clear break counts as a breakout. If it falls back to around 146, there is support.
One-sentence takeaway: I won’t deny the trend is leaning bullish, but chasing at these highs has mediocre risk/reward. Either wait for a real breakout with volume that truly pushes through 148.8, or wait for a pullback into 146–147 that doesn’t break, and then enter—you’ll be more comfortable than chasing right now.
#soxl $SOXL