#SpaceXSharesRiseTo$140 $SPCX at $140
and I still don't like it here.
IPO'd at $135, ran
to
$225 in days, now sitting 38% off that high. The recovery from the mid-$110s looks like relief, not a re-rating. Big difference.
The bear case is simple math. At $
140
, you're still paying roughly 110x trailing revenue. Susquehanna - not exactly a perma-bear shop - slapped a Neutral on this with a $170 target and said there's "quite a bit of risk" at these levels. The valuation demands near-perfect execution across rockets, Starlink, Starship, and an AI division that is burning cash at an extraordinary rate. All simultaneously. That's not a margin of safety. That's a prayer.
The $4.9 billion net loss is real. Governance is concentrated in one person who also runs a trillion-dollar car company. And lock-up expirations haven't fully played out yet - insider supply is coming.
Damodaran looked at this and said getting to $1.3 trillion "takes the bull case to its limits." We're not far off that right now at $140.
My $75 target might be too aggressive - I'll admit that. But $140 is not cheap by any honest measure. The long-term story is genuinely brilliant. Starlink's recurring revenue, 165 launches a year, Starship optionality - I see all of it. I just don't need to pay full price for optionality on a company losing $4.9 billion annually.
I'm not adding here. Yet.
#SPCX #SpaceX $FRAX $FOGO
and I still don't like it here.
IPO'd at $135, ran
to
$225 in days, now sitting 38% off that high. The recovery from the mid-$110s looks like relief, not a re-rating. Big difference.
The bear case is simple math. At $
140
, you're still paying roughly 110x trailing revenue. Susquehanna - not exactly a perma-bear shop - slapped a Neutral on this with a $170 target and said there's "quite a bit of risk" at these levels. The valuation demands near-perfect execution across rockets, Starlink, Starship, and an AI division that is burning cash at an extraordinary rate. All simultaneously. That's not a margin of safety. That's a prayer.
The $4.9 billion net loss is real. Governance is concentrated in one person who also runs a trillion-dollar car company. And lock-up expirations haven't fully played out yet - insider supply is coming.
Damodaran looked at this and said getting to $1.3 trillion "takes the bull case to its limits." We're not far off that right now at $140.
My $75 target might be too aggressive - I'll admit that. But $140 is not cheap by any honest measure. The long-term story is genuinely brilliant. Starlink's recurring revenue, 165 launches a year, Starship optionality - I see all of it. I just don't need to pay full price for optionality on a company losing $4.9 billion annually.
I'm not adding here. Yet.
#SPCX #SpaceX $FRAX $FOGO