Conclusion first: this Hyperliquid address has a win rate of only 36.26%. Out of 171 closed positions, it only won 62 times, but over 179 days it generated $1.3461 million in net profit. If you look only at win rate, you’d screen him out immediately.
Address: 0x90dbb196cacf24bd212b377a0dd62eaad5e8151b
Disassemble it and see how he managed it. Total成交$54.48 million, 171 closed positions, less than one per day on average—low-frequency, heavy-position type. Commission was $22,000, accounting for 1.6% of profit. Max drawdown was $234,700, only 17% of net gains actually realized. He wins fewer times, but the size of each win is far larger than the size of each loss. Drawdowns were never out of control, and there are zero liquidation records.
Current positions explain the issue more clearly. $HYPE Long 125k units, cost 554.5k, position value 7.367 million USD, unrealized profit 436.4k. Nominally 10x full account, but the liquidation price has been pushed down to 10.51; there is still about 80% of the distance from the current price 59.01. $LINK Long 200k units, cost 96k, position 1.9 million, unrealized loss 21.1k. Account equity is 1.2166 million, supporting a total position of 9.267 million; overall leverage is 7.6x. They hang a 10x leverage sign, and the liquidation line is drawn farther than for many 3x-position setups.
The comparison group is even more interesting. On the leaderboard, 0x4aab8988462923ca3cbaa7e94df0cc523817cd64 has a win rate of 83.5%—more than double. In 372 days, he had net profits of 1.6344 million, earning only 290k more; but the maximum drawdown is 4.0064 million, which is 2.4 times all the profits combined. The one with the high win rate earned but suffered—his floating losses held mid-course were even more than what he managed to lock in.
Now let’s see whether the direction is right. HYPE’s current price is 59.01; position size is 2.376 billion, up 4.55% over the past 24 hours—the fastest adding among the mainstream. In the past 1 hour, HYPE liquidated 671.2k and 125 trades; longs only accounted for 239 USD, while the rest were all shorts. In the same hour across the whole network, 14.123 million liquidations, 2303 trades; shorts accounted for 96.5%. His long positions were in the exact opposite direction to the liquidations in that hour—he was on the side that survived.
Risk is also visible. A 36% win rate means consecutive losses are the norm; the buffer of equity 1.21 million against a 9.26 million position is not that thick. For the LINK trade, the total market open position over the last 24 hours is still -0.37%, and nobody is following into the market.
Background: the Fear & Greed Index is 31, still in the fear zone. The Altcoin Season index is 62 (out of 50 samples, 31 outperformed). $BTC 90 days: -17.55%.
Would you rather follow the kind with a 36% win rate but controllable drawdown, or the one with an 83% win rate but who has to endure floating losses exceeding the profits?
#Hyperliquid #聪明钱 #风险管理 #position size
Live view: https://www.coinboss.com/zh/hyperliquid-whale/0x90dbb196cacf24bd212b377a0dd62eaad5e8151b