$KAITO unlock countdown—after a 70% retracement, will risk continue to expand?
From the chart, $KAITO has already retraced by about 70% from its peak. The concentration of holders appears to have loosened noticeably, and most short-term dip-buying capital is now trapped. Against the backdrop of a large amount of tokens soon entering circulation, supply-demand balance can easily be disrupted.
A few points worth paying attention to:
1. Unlock volume vs. circulating supply. If the share released in one go is relatively high compared with the current circulating supply, near-term sell pressure should not be underestimated—especially allocations from the project team, foundations, and early investors, which often opt to take profit immediately after unlocking.
2. Recent on-chain data. Watch whether large holders move tokens in advance and whether CEX deposits increase. These signals often come before any price reaction.
3. Spot vs. derivatives sentiment. After a 70% retracement, if the contract funding rate turns negative and open interest begins to decline, it will reflect whether the market is fleeing in panic or if it has already effectively “thrown in the towel.”
4. Narrative vs. fundamentals hedging. Even if the short term is under pressure, if the long-term logic of the AI + information/data sector still holds, a deeper pullback might instead become a window for funds to rebuild positions.
Trading approach: don’t chase shorts or try to bottom-fish. Wait until the on-chain data around the unlock date becomes clear, then make decisions based on how key support levels react—this is usually more reliable than relying on K-line movements alone.
Risk warning: unlock events often come with wild volatility. Strictly control position size. DYOR.
#KAITO#altcoin#market_analysis
From the chart, $KAITO has already retraced by about 70% from its peak. The concentration of holders appears to have loosened noticeably, and most short-term dip-buying capital is now trapped. Against the backdrop of a large amount of tokens soon entering circulation, supply-demand balance can easily be disrupted.
A few points worth paying attention to:
1. Unlock volume vs. circulating supply. If the share released in one go is relatively high compared with the current circulating supply, near-term sell pressure should not be underestimated—especially allocations from the project team, foundations, and early investors, which often opt to take profit immediately after unlocking.
2. Recent on-chain data. Watch whether large holders move tokens in advance and whether CEX deposits increase. These signals often come before any price reaction.
3. Spot vs. derivatives sentiment. After a 70% retracement, if the contract funding rate turns negative and open interest begins to decline, it will reflect whether the market is fleeing in panic or if it has already effectively “thrown in the towel.”
4. Narrative vs. fundamentals hedging. Even if the short term is under pressure, if the long-term logic of the AI + information/data sector still holds, a deeper pullback might instead become a window for funds to rebuild positions.
Trading approach: don’t chase shorts or try to bottom-fish. Wait until the on-chain data around the unlock date becomes clear, then make decisions based on how key support levels react—this is usually more reliable than relying on K-line movements alone.
Risk warning: unlock events often come with wild volatility. Strictly control position size. DYOR.
#KAITO#altcoin#market_analysis